Edo South Showdown: Can Okpebholo’s Candidate Withstand the Storm?

The road to the April 2026 party primaries is already gathering momentum in Edo State, with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) facing mounting internal tensions over who clinches the coveted senatorial tickets, PATRICK OCHOGA writes.

What should ordinarily be a routine pre-primary season has morphed into a high-stakes political chess game, particularly in Edo South Senatorial District, where ambition, loyalty, and strategic alliances are colliding.

At the centre of the unfolding drama is Governor Monday Okpebholo, whose perceived preference for a particular candidate in Edo South has triggered ripples across the party’s power structure. As the leader of the APC in the state, Okpebholo is not just a passive observer; he is widely regarded as the principal strategist whose calculations may ultimately shape the outcome of the primaries.

The Edo South Flashpoint

Edo South, which accounts for more than 56 per cent of the state’s voting strength, has historically played a decisive role in determining electoral outcomes. It is therefore no surprise that the battle for its senatorial ticket is generating the fierce contest within the APC.

The crux of the current tension lies in the reported body language of Governor Okpebholo, which is said to favour a former House of Representatives member, Hon. Ogbeide Ihama, as the party’s senatorial flagbearer for Edo South.

Ihama, a former opposition figure and one-time governorship aspirant, defected to the APC ahead of the 2024 governorship election. He is widely acknowledged as a close ally of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

His defection and subsequent support for Okpebholo’s governorship bid were seen as strategic moves that consolidated cross-party backing for the APC candidate at the time.

Political insiders allege that in the build-up to the 2024 election, a tacit understanding was reached between Governor Okpebholo and a faction of the opposition PDP led by Chief Dan Orbih.

According to this narrative, the Edo South senatorial ticket was part of a broader political bargain aimed at delivering electoral support. While these claims remain speculative and unconfirmed, they have fueled resentment among longstanding APC stakeholders in Edo South who fear that party loyalty may be sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.

Governor Okpebholo’s role in the unfolding saga cannot be overstated. As the undisputed leader of the APC in Edo State, he commands significant influence over party structures, delegates, and strategic alliances. His political strength is particularly pronounced in Edo Central, his senatorial district, where no serious challenge to his authority is expected.

Unlike Edo Central, where the governor’s political base is solid, Edo South boasts a complex web of entrenched leaders, legacy politicians, and aspirants with deep grassroots networks. Imposing a preferred candidate without broad consultation risks igniting factional resistance, an outcome that could fracture party unity ahead of the 2027 general election.

Yet, from another perspective, Okpebholo’s alleged backing of Ihama may reflect a calculated long-term strategy. By rewarding political allies who stood with him during the 2024 election, the governor reinforces a culture of reciprocity and loyalty within his coalition.

Delivering Edo South to a trusted ally could also strengthen his negotiating leverage at the national level, especially in fulfilling his ambitious pledge of delivering 3.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

The governor is walking a tightrope,  balancing gratitude to political partners with the need to maintain cohesion within his party’s traditional base.

Edo South is not short of formidable aspirants. Among those reportedly eyeing the APC ticket are Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, Senator Neda Imasuen, former Deputy Governor Lucky Imasuen, Hon. Valentine Asuen, Senator Mathew Uroghide, Barrister Olumide Akpata, and Hon. Paddy Iyamu.

Most notably, the incumbent senator, Neda Imasuen, has declared his intention to seek a second term. Imasuen recently dismissed rumours suggesting he was uninterested in returning to the Senate, describing such claims as mischief orchestrated by detractors.

In a personally endorsed statement, Imasuen made his position unequivocal: he is fully committed to re-election. He framed his bid not as personal ambition but as a strategic necessity, arguing that legislative effectiveness deepens with experience. A ranking senator, he noted, wields greater influence in attracting federal projects and shaping policy outcomes.

Imasuen is reportedly leveraging his connections in Abuja, quietly lobbying key stakeholders while banking on his legislative record. However, the contest may ultimately hinge less on individual credentials and more on the governor’s strategic direction.

Opposition to Ihama’s perceived imposition is brewing among key APC leaders in Edo South. Critics argue that allowing a relatively recent defector to leapfrog established party loyalists undermines the APC’s reward system.

Their concerns are twofold. First, they insist that Edo South leaders should determine their own candidate without undue interference from the governor, who hails from Edo Central.

Second, they warned that sidelining grassroots aspirants could provoke defections and weaken the party’s electoral prospects.

The issue came to a head during the recent APC state congress, where the newly endorsed chairman, Jarret Tenebe, urged aspirants to prepare for open primaries, making an exception only for Senator Adams Oshiomhole. That announcement was widely interpreted as a signal that the Edo South ticket may not be a foregone conclusion after all.

If the primaries are indeed free and competitive, aspirants may feel emboldened to test their strength at the ballot rather than concede to perceived imposition.

While Edo South simmers, Edo Central and Edo North appear relatively settled. Senator Joe Ikpea is expected to retain the Edo Central ticket with the governor’s backing, while Adams Oshiomhole enjoys formidable grassroots support in Edo North.

Beyond the APC, other parties are positioning themselves. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been rocked by internal tensions between loyalists of Senator Roland Owie and former Governor Odigie Oyegun.

Meanwhile, Olumide Akpata, formerly of the Labour Party, is reportedly weighing his options in the Edo South contest. Observers are of the opinion that the 2026 primaries are not merely about candidate selection; they are a rehearsal for the 2027 general election.

Ultimately, Governor Okpebholo’s leadership style will define the outcome. Will he assert his authority as kingmaker, ensuring his preferred candidate emerges regardless of resistance? Or will he recalibrate, opting for consensus-building to preserve party unity?

Political observers suggest that while the governor possesses the influence to shape delegate dynamics, he must also weigh the cost of alienating entrenched stakeholders in Edo South. A fractured APC could open the door to an opposition resurgence in 2027.

For now, the governor remains the central figure in the unfolding drama his strategic calculations, alliances, and timing likely to determine who flies the APC flag in Edo South.

As resignations of political appointees increase and aspirants intensify grassroots mobilisation, one thing is clear: the battle for Edo’s senatorial tickets is only just beginning. And in this contest of ambition and allegiance, the uphill task ahead may test not only individual aspirants but the cohesion of the APC itself.