FACT CHECK: Ethiopia Has Not Overtaken Nigeria As Africa’s 4th Largest Economy

Recent claims circulating on social media suggested that Ethiopia has surpassed Nigeria to become Africa’s fourth-largest economy.

The claims, widely shared online, suggested that Nigeria fell to fifth place due to economic struggles. However, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proved the claims to be false.

A social media post, which has been shared nearly 3,000 times since its publication on January 5, 2024, stated, “Ethiopia has just displaced Nigeria to become the 4th largest economy in Africa as Nigeria now ranks 5th.”

The post also includes a quote attributed to an individual named Okenyi Kenechi, which read, “From number one to 5 in just 10 years. The error of 2015 will take decades to correct.”

The reference to 2015 alludes to Nigeria’s general election that year, in which the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) lost to the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is still in power.

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The IMF, a global financial institution that tracks economic data across 191 member-countries, provides authoritative rankings of national economies based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country over a given period.

According to the IMF’s latest GDP estimates for 2024, Africa’s top six economies are as follows:

1. South Africa

2. Egypt

3. Algeria

4. Nigeria – $199.72 billion

5. Morocco

6. Ethiopia

This confirmed that Ethiopia did not overtake Nigeria, as the latter still holds its position as Africa’s fourth-largest economy.

Nigeria was Africa’s largest economy from 2012 to 2016, based on IMF data. It slipped to second place in 2017 but regained its top position in 2018, maintaining it until 2022. In 2023, Egypt overtook Nigeria to claim the top spot.

This historical data contradicts the social media claim that Nigeria has fallen from first to fifth place in a decade. Instead, the country has moved from first to fourth over this period.

Similarly, data from Statista.com, shows that South Africa has the highest GDP of 373.23, followed by Egypt with 347.59, Algeria with 266.78, Nigeria still maintaining its fourth place with 252.74 , Ethiopia with 205.13 and Morocco with 152.38

The claim that Ethiopia has overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s fourth-largest economy is false. Nigeria remains in fourth place, with Morocco and Ethiopia trailing behind. While Nigeria faces economic challenges, including inflation and the impact of economic reforms, official data does not support the assertion that it has dropped to fifth place.