GDP Rebasing May Reposition Nigeria As Africa’s Largest Economy Again

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures this week which could reaffirm the country’s position as Africa’s largest economy.

The rebasing exercise, the first since 2014, updates the base year and incorporates a broader range of economic activities, especially within the informal sector, which has historically been underrepresented.

Sources within the NBS have indicated that the new GDP figures are likely to be significantly larger than current estimates, mainly due to improved measurement of previously underrepresented sectors, especially within the informal economy, which constitutes a substantial part of Nigeria’s economic activities.

The rebasing exercise updates the base year for calculating GDP size and structure, reflecting recent economic realities and structural changes. It also captures a broader range of financial activities, enhancing data accuracy for policymaking and investment decisions.

The statistician-general of the federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, had earlier in the year stated that the NBS had conducted technical workshops and engagement sessions with data users, development partners, economic experts, and policy stakeholders to deepen understanding of the rebasing process and its implications.

The rebasing exercise may reflect the evolution of Nigeria’s economy and incorporate recent economic realities. It may also say more about the size of the GDP. An insider familiar with the process said it would provide more accurate and comprehensive data for policy formulation and investment decisions.

The last GDP rebasing, conducted in 2014, saw Nigeria’s economy leapfrog South Africa’s, making it the largest on the continent. Analysts say a similar outcome is possible again, depending on the results of this latest exercise.

The upcoming release is expected to stimulate renewed discussions about Nigeria’s economic growth prospects and the credibility of macroeconomic indicators used in national planning. Analysts recall that the last rebasing in 2014 resulted in Nigeria overtaking South Africa as Africa’s largest economy, and a similar outcome is anticipated depending on the new figures.

This rebasing comes amid projections of steady economic growth. Nigeria’s economy expanded by an estimated 3.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, driven by higher crude oil production and growth in manufacturing and services despite challenges in agriculture. The updated GDP data will provide a clearer foundation for assessing growth and guiding future economic policies.