Hailstorm Hits Abuja In November

Residents of parts of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) witnessed hailstones during rainfall on Monday evening, November 2, 2026, an unusual weather occurrence that has drawn attention because it came as the dry season typically begins to set in across much of the region.

The incident came at a time when rainfall in Abuja is expected to decline considerably, with November climatological averages indicating a sharp drop in both rainfall amount and the number of rainy days compared with the preceding months.

LEADERSHIP reports that the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)  has warned that a strong El Niño event is expected to intensify and influence global temperature and rainfall patterns into 2027.

Although the coincidence has prompted questions about whether El Niño could be responsible for the hailstones, meteorological evidence has yet to establish a direct connection between the global climate phenomenon and Monday’s occurrence.

In an October 26, 2026, report, Punch examined NiMet’s warnings about the potential effects of the phenomenon on Nigeria, including changes in rainfall distribution, the length of the rainy season and the timing of its cessation.

NiMet’s August-to-October outlook anticipated different rainfall outcomes across the country, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected in parts of northern Nigeria and drier-than-normal conditions in some southern areas.

The report also noted that rainfall forecasts for October and November indicated above-normal rainfall in parts of the Sahel, while below-normal rainfall was likely in some bimodal rainfall areas of West Africa.

According to climate data published by the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Information Service, Abuja records an average of about 3.7 millimetres of rainfall and 0.3 rainy days in November, compared with 103.2 millimetres and eight rainy days in October.

However, these figures are long-term averages and do not rule out isolated rainfall events or thunderstorms in November.

NiMet’s weather outlook for Monday, November 2, also indicated the possibility of isolated thunderstorms accompanied by light rainfall over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, as well as parts of Nasarawa and Kogi states.

The forecast, however, did not specifically predict hailstones in Abuja.

What Are Hailstones?

Hailstones are balls or irregular lumps of ice that form inside thunderstorm clouds and fall to the ground as precipitation.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s International Cloud Atlas, hailstones are generally between five and 50 millimetres in diameter and are commonly associated with heavy thunderstorms.

They develop when strong upward-moving currents of air carry water droplets into very cold regions of a thunderstorm cloud, where the droplets freeze and accumulate layers of ice.

The hailstones eventually fall when they become too heavy to remain suspended by the upward air currents.

Although Nigeria experiences high temperatures for much of the year, these ground-level temperatures do not prevent ice from forming high within thunderstorm clouds, where atmospheric conditions can be sufficiently cold.

The occurrence of hailstones in Abuja, therefore, does not necessarily mean that the city experienced unusually cold temperatures.

Why Is November Rainfall Unusual In Abuja?

November generally marks the transition into the dry season in much of northern and central Nigeria, although the timing and intensity of seasonal changes vary from place to place.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains that Nigeria’s wet and dry seasons are influenced by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which affects the distribution of moisture and rainfall across the country.

As the zone shifts southwards, northern parts of Nigeria generally experience drier conditions, while the rainy season lasts longer in the south.

Abuja, situated in the country’s North-Central region, typically experiences a substantial reduction in rainfall around this period.

Nevertheless, the arrival of November does not mean that rainfall becomes impossible. Local atmospheric conditions can still produce isolated thunderstorms, even when the broader seasonal pattern favours dry weather.

A similar episode occurred in November 2023, when unusual rainfall and thunderstorms affected Abuja and other parts of northern Nigeria.

A report by Radio Nigeria Lagos, published on November 28, 2023, said the Nigerian Meteorological Agency attributed the episode to an atmospheric disturbance involving a mid-latitude trough and thermal lows over West Africa, which helped shift the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity farther north than usual.

The agency explained that the resulting influx of moisture, combined with atmospheric energy, encouraged cloud formation and thunderstorms.

NiMet described the occurrence as a temporary weather variation rather than a seasonal change.

However, there is currently insufficient evidence to establish that Monday’s hailstones resulted from the same atmospheric conditions.