IFDC Links 2025 Fertilizer Output Dip To Rising Costs, Weak Markets

Nigeria’s fertilizer industry has recorded a decline in production and consumption in 2025, a trend industry actors attribute to rising input costs, weak commodity markets, supply constraints and limited credit for farmers.

The concerns were raised at the NPK Fertilizer Technical Working Group (FTWG) Production Statistics Validation Workshop in Kaduna where stakeholders also renewed calls for credible national data to guide policy and investment decisions.

The country representative of IFDC Nigeria, Mohammed Idris Salasi, said the sector had come under significant strain this year, commending private sector operators for sustaining the process despite the pressures.

He noted that their resilience had kept the national data-gathering structure intact at a critical moment for food security planning.

Salasi explained that the technical working group was established after Nigeria shifted from foreign-formulated NPK to a fast-expanding domestic blending industry. With traditional data sources unable to capture developments across more than 100 blending plants now operating nationwide.

He said the 2025 exercise show the value of transparency, especially in a year marked by rising costs, reduced output and persistent logistical disruptions.

IFDC senior fertilizer market specialist, Samuel Ali, traced the origins of the initiative to the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative launched in 2016, which spurred the rise of local blending plants from 11 then to more than 100 today.

Ali noted that reliable information remains a major challenge for operators and policymakers, affecting business planning, siting of new plants, subsidy design and market coordination.

He identified adulteration as another critical concern and said better data on formulation and labelling would help isolate problem areas.

Reviewing production and consumption patterns from 2017 to 2025, he noted that this year’s downturn reflected deeper pressures in the farm economy.

Ali said, “When you look at the cost of fertilizer and the cost of inputs, it is not surprising to see a downshift in consumption this year. When we reviewed the data yesterday, the trend was already clear. In 2024, the figures were higher; in 2025, the figures were lower.

This tells you something is wrong, and that decline is tied to several factors: cost is one factor, but there is also the question of whether farmers have a viable market for their commodities. If there is a market for the output, they will buy fertilizer, even if it costs 100,000.

The lower consumption reflects pressures across these areas, and the data is pointing directly at those challenges.”