IMF Lowers Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Projections to 4.1% Over Rising Fuel, Fertiliser Prices

The IMF in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook revised downwards Nigeria’s 2026 growth from 4.4 per cent which it projected in January this year to 4.1 per cent while growth is expected to rise to 4.3 per cent in 2027.
According to the report, global growth is projected to be 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per:cent in 2027 as the war in the middle east is expected to further impact growth.

Speaking at the launch of the World Economic Outlook at the ongoing IMF/ World Bank 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington DC, Economic Counsellor and director, Research Department, IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that across sub-Saharan Africa, growth projections had been downgraded as the impact of cutting of aids to the region is compounded by the impact of the war.

“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing, broadly a downgrade in growth and rising inflation in a number of countries in the region. The impact is largely in line with global trends. For many countries, especially energy importers, the situation is challenging, although there are also energy exporters in the region, so the impact varies,” he stated.

For Nigeria, division chief, Research Department, at the IMF, Deniz Igan noted that for Nigeria, “growth has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1 per cent in 2026. This reflects two opposing forces. On one hand, higher fuel and fertiliser prices and increased shipping costs are expected to weigh on non-oil activity.

“On the other hand, higher oil prices provide some offset. Overall, the balance is negative for growth in 2026, with some recovery expected in 2027.” She noted that “maintaining tight monetary policy, remaining data-dependent, and closely monitoring exchange rate movements and inflation expectations will be crucial to achieving the inflation target.

“In spite of the gains the current high oil prices triggered by the war in the middle east, Nigeria’s growth projections have been revised downwards by 0.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent in 2026 by the International Monetary Fund.

On sub-Saharan Africa, Igan noted that 2025 was relatively strong for the region. “Before the war, global growth was resilient, oil prices were strong, and external financial conditions were supportive. This helped countries in the region.

“However, with the war, global growth has slowed, non-oil commodity prices have softened, and terms of trade have worsened for oil importers. This creates variation in impact across the region. In addition, Sub-Saharan Africa is facing significant headwinds from declining foreign aid. Bilateral aid cuts range from 16 per cent to 28 per cent in 2025, and we expect this trend to continue.
“In terms of impact, growth has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points cumulatively for 2026 and 2027. At the same time, median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to five per cent. This reflects high oil and fertiliser prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising borrowing costs. Fertiliser prices are a particular concern due to the region’s dependence on agriculture and existing food insecurity.