Although the federal government has embarked on a series of reforms and interventions in the critical areas. sectors of the economy, growth in these sectors are largely mild in the last two years, LEADERSHIP learnt.
While the uncertainty that clouded the economy in May 2023 when the current administration at the federal level, led by President Bola Tinubu, seems to have subsided, its ghost is still sniffing around.
Banking
In the banking sector, the steps taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN) seems to have salvage the nation’s legal tender, thereby, creating stability in the forex market. Similarly, the processing of some staple foods have dropped in recent times, however, inflation continues to hurt in the midst of these interventions, hence, deflating all the hard work put in place by monetary authorities to reduce the economy. With most Nigerians battling low disposable income in the midst of rising costs and standard of living, the economy is not smiling with average Nigerians.
Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s banking industry has undergone a dramatic transformation. A bold slate of reforms, ranging from sweeping recapitalisation mandates to regulatory overhauls and leadership reshuffles, has left an indelible mark on the country’s economy.
The sector, long grappling with sluggish growth, a volatile naira, and foreign exchange bottlenecks, now finds itself at the centre of Tinubu’s broader economic realignment agenda. A trend some analysts say has led to a form of stability and predictability that is good for the economy.
One of the most defining moves came in March 2024, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a mandatory bank recapitalisation programme, ordering all commercial banks to increase their minimum capital bases within two years.
While the industry had been given an idea that a recapitalization was in the works in November 2023, the new thresholds rattled industry stakeholders for a while. International banks under the new threshold are to have N500 billion capital base, N200 billion for national banks, and N50 billion for regional banks.
The recapitalisation, which is part of the administration’s target of a $1 trillion economy, is also designed to fortify banks against systemic shocks, particularly in light of the macroeconomic turbulence that followed the naira’s massive devaluation. Since mid-2023, the local currency has lost nearly 70 per cent of its value, driven by the CBN’s unification of exchange rates and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market.
Aside from recapitalisation, one major event under the Tinubu administration is the change of baton at the apex bank. Cardoso’s regime is also associated with a return to policy orthodoxy, reversing years of opaque interventions under his predecessor. The re-establishment of trust with multilateral institutions and investors has been central to this effort.
In an effort to tame inflation and stabilise the financial system, the CBN’s new leadership turned hawkish. Under governor Yemi Cardoso, who took office in September 2023, following the suspension of Godwin Emefiele, the bank has hiked the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 18.75 per cent to 22.75 per cent.
Alongside interest rate hikes, the CBN raised the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks from 32.5 per cent to 50 per cent, and merchant banks from 10 per cent to 16 per cent. These measures have tightened liquidity, with knock-on effects on credit to the real sector.
Meanwhile, the CBN has recorded an uptick in foreign reserves, rising from $35.094 billion as at May, 30, 2023 to $38.552 billion as at May 22, 2025.
The increase reflects better foreign exchange inflows from oil receipts and remittances, aided by improved transparency in the forex market.
Assessing the past two years, Head, Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co, Ayokunle Olubunmi noted that, as much as there are positives, there are also policies that have created negative effects on the economy.
According to him, the elevated cash reserve debits have adversely impacted the industry’s liquidity and funding cost, while inflationary pressure and steep naira depreciation have increased the operating cost for many corporates particularly manufacturers significantly
Asides these, he noted that, the steep naira devaluation has bloated the asset base with significant impact on regulatory costs such as the AMCON levy, while asset quality pressures have increased as obligors grapple with the harsh economic reality. On the other hand, he noted that the various policies have cumulatively produced a relatively predictive and stable regulatory environment. Olubunmi also pointed out that the country now has a more understanding and listening central bank.
Capital Market
Meanwhile, market capitalization surged by N41.5 trillion within two years from N28.845 trillion at the start of trading on May 30, 2023, to N70.377 trillion as of May 27, 2024. Correspondingly, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 84.27 per cent, rising from 52,973.88 points on May 26, 2023, to reach 111,606.22 points on May 27, 2024
Ahead of the second-year anniversary today, shareholders said President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms have helped to stabilise the economy and restore investors’ confidence in the long-term prospects of the Nigerian economy.
Shareholders, under the aegis of Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), a foremost shareholders’ group, said reforms undertaken by Tinubu government have directly and indirectly made the investment environment better.
In a statement, president, Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), Dr Faruk Umar said, Tinubu has demonstrated commendable awareness about the challenges bedeviling the Nigerian economy and the ways to resolve them.
According to him, while the reforms necessarily came with some negative consequences on the citizens and companies such as the increase in prices of goods and services and foreign exchange (forex) losses by companies, the reforms have helped to reset the economy’s fundamentals and position the country for sustainable growth.
He outlined that, the stability in the forex market, the almost attainment of a single-window forex market, return of foreign investors and significant increase in foreign participation at the Nigerian stock market and generally positive corporate performance were indications of the success of the economic reforms.
He pointed out that the sustained positive performance of the Nigerian stock market since the advent of this government underscored investors’ confidence, noting that the stock market is regarded as a measure of economic direction.
Umar, who sits on the boards of many companies, said the banking recapitalisation has not only helped to strengthen banks, which have some of the largest shareholders’ base, but it has also deepened the stock market.
He noted that the recent outlook suggests that inflation is simmering down, expressing optimism that ongoing initiatives in the agricultural sector and improvement in security should further drive down prices of commodities.
He commended the President for particularly introducing the naira-for-crude, naira-for-products’ policy and Nigeria First policy, describing as thoughtful policies that would ensure the stability of the economy, especially in the light of unpredictable changes in the global environment.
Pension Industry
The nation’s pension fund assets rose by N6.5 trn between June 2023 and March 2025. The assets were N16.76 trillion in June 2023 and grew to N23.328 trillion in March 2025, representing N6.5 trillion or about 27 per cent growth within the period under review.
Investment income, according to LEADERSHIP investigation, was instrumental to the continuous growth in pension fund, despite the fact that some governments at majorly, State level are not paying the monthly pension contributions of their workers as and when due.
Similarly, the huge increase, according to findings, was attributed to new pension contributions received, interest from fixed income securities and net realised on equities and mutual fund investments.
Reacting to this development at a seminar in Lagos recently, the director general of the National Pension Commission(PenCom), Ms. Omolola Oloworaran said: “This progress demonstrates the strength of our contributory pension system, but we are not without challenges. Inflation, for instance, continues to erode the purchasing power of pensioners, and we are actively seeking innovative solutions to address this issue.”
She added that, the pension industry continues to face the persistent issue of delays in the payment of accrued rights, noting that, “we are working with the Federal Government to put in place a sustainable solution that ensures retirees receive their benefits promptly and without undue stress.”
Similarly, the executive secretary/CEO, Pension Fund Operators Association of Nigeria (PenOp), Mr. Oguche Aguda, while applauding the contributions of pension fund operators toward growing the assets, assured pension contributors that their funds are in safe hands, attesting to the fact that, there has been no reported mismanagement of pension fund under the new scheme.
He disclosed that, the operators are working with the pension industry regulator to address grey areas and smoothing things to ensure that the industry attract more subscribers and gives investment values to stakeholders, including contributors, investors, among others.
ICT
In the Information Communication Technology (ICT) sector, while government reforms are obvious in the last two years, there are still some teething problems begging for solution. Despite renewed efforts by the federal government to boost Nigeria’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector, industry experts and stakeholders have said, poor service quality, the looming reintroduction of a five percent excise tax, and deepening digital inequality are undermining progress.
At the heart of the discontent is the worsening quality of telecommunications services in Nigeria.
The president of the National Association of Telecommunications Subscribers (NATCOMS), Mr. Deolu Ogunbanjo, while speaking with LEADERSHIP, decried the deteriorating experience of subscribers nationwide.
Ogunbanjo noted that network disruptions, failed calls, and delayed transaction alerts have become rampant in 2025, marking what he described as the “worst ever” period in Nigeria’s GSM history.
“You could be doing a financial transaction, and the network disappears. By the time you retry, you get charged multiple times. Sometimes, the credit is reversed, but many times, subscribers are left hanging,” Ogunbanjo said.
According to him, the telecom sector is reeling from multiple shocks which include inconsistent regulation, unapproved tariff hikes, and now, a fresh tax burden in the form of a five percent excise duty.
Recall that Nigeria has reintroduces the controversial five percent excise duty on telecom services, a move that industry stakeholders say will hinder digital inclusion and increase financial pressure on consumers.
Ogunbanjo said NATCOMS is currently challenging the excise tax in court. “It is a move that will only deepen the pain for subscribers already dealing with poor service and rising costs,” Ogunbanjo said.
While the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024 does offer some consumer relief, such as zero percent VAT on essential goods like food, healthcare, rent, and education, telecom services are notably excluded. This leaves millions of low-income Nigerians vulnerable to increased costs for services that are no longer optional, especially in a digital-first world.
President of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Gbenga Adebayo, said the new tax, if implemented, would further squeeze telecom firms already operating on tight margins. “There’s no clarity on how it will be implemented, but one thing is sure: the burden will fall on the consumer. Telecoms are a public utility, not a luxury item,” Adebayo said.
As of August 2024, telecom operators reportedly faced 54 different taxes, according to ALTON. These include levies from federal, state, and local governments, many of them duplicated and opaque.
Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani, recently disclosed that, the rollout of the N3.3 trillion project to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic cables and 7,000 telecom towers will begin in Q4 2025.
Speaking in a documentary marking President Bola Tinubu’s second year in office, Tijani said the initiative aims to provide high-speed, affordable internet to all Nigerians, regardless of location.
“We are preparing a $2 billion investment to ensure every Nigerian can access affordable, high-quality connectivity,” Tijani said, adding that a 10 percent increase in connectivity hubs could spur 2.5 percent GDP growth.
He highlighted that the ICT sector attracted $191 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Q1 2024, up from $22 million in Q1 2023, signaling renewed investor confidence. These advancements, according to Tijani, are part of foundational reforms that have positioned Nigeria as a rising digital power on the global stage.
In tandem with infrastructure growth, the Three Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, launched in 2023, has already trained over 117,000 Nigerians, far surpassing its initial target of 30,000. The initiative aims to bridge the digital skills gap by producing a tech-savvy workforce capable of sustaining the country’s digital ambitions.
Moreover, telecom operators are also stepping up. In response to widespread complaints about service quality, operators have committed $1 billion to import new network equipment, primarily from OEMs in China. According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the investment is targeted at upgrading aging infrastructure, reducing call drops, improving internet speeds, and expanding coverage in underserved areas.
Deliveries of the new equipment are expected to begin by July 2025, with phased installation over the following months. Industry insiders believe the investment, one of the largest in recent years, could be a turning point for Nigeria’s telecom ecosystem.
While critics argue that taxes and poor policy coordination continue to undermine the sector’s potential, the government insists that it is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. If a sector can increase its contribution by three to four per cent to GDP, we are about to see the economic growth we have not seen before, Tijani asserted.
Energy
Similarly, though the federal government interventions in the energy sector are visible, their impacts are subtle as oil theft, smuggling, and waning production capacity continue.
Nigeria is celebrating a greater success in policy shift especially in the energy sector after the federal government initiated bold reforms aimed at improving the energy sector.
Though the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has supported most key steps in the direction of promoting efficiency and transparency in the industry and attracting investment, however, thus has not translated into significant changes as expected.
Two years into the life of the present administration, the expected gains from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s subsidy removal on petrol as announced on his inauguration on May 29, 2023, is yet to address key industry challenges, like oil theft, smuggling of products among others.
The understanding is that the fuel subsidy removal would free up financial resources for other sectors, incentivise domestic refineries for more petroleum products, and reduce dependency on imported fuel and channel funds for development of critical projects.
Currently, government owned refineries are not performing optimally except Dangote’s mega refinery which is standing in the gap. However, Nigerians are yet to reap the benefits of the fuel subsidy removal, as they currently face hardship, sufferings and economic downturn due to the removal.
Fuel is being sold at an exorbitant rate by marketers because of the high cost of refining the crude outside the country, as Nigerians earnestly await oil production by public owned refineries.
The coming on stream of the $20 billion Dangote Refinery with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter of 2023 was a plus to the country’s oil sector.
Though the company has commenced pumping refined Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) and aviation fuel or Jet A1, supply of fuel to bridge the gap and cushion the inadequacy in the sector has not yet reached its planned peak.
Though presently, the sector has witnessed some landmark achievements, the Federal Government had on December 21, 2023, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-up of the Port Harcourt Refining Company Limited (PHRC), but just recently the refinery has been shut down for maintenance.
Major oil companies are divesting their assets though giving opportunities to indigenous companies to provide a buffer for supply of crude to boost production.
For a long period of time, the country has not been able to pump to its OPEC quota for years. Minister of State for Petroleum (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, speaking at the 5th Nigerian Oil and Gas Opportunity Fair (NOGOF) in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, last week, noted that, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of the year, well below the 1.8 million bpd quota in OPEC.
Equally speaking in that direction, Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), noted that “ Production growth hinges on optimising our existing resources and exploring new frontiers,”
Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving majors out of Nigeria and often resulting in force majeure at the key crude oil export terminals. Nigeria, has consistently failed to pump to its OPEC+ quota due to oil theft and vandalism and struggles to launch new projects.
Meanwhile, authorities have been clamping down on oil theft and have been supportive of an increase in oil and gas output in recent months.
On the positive side, under the current administration, Nigeria has achieved major milestones in the energy sector, including securing three of Africa’s four Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) valued at over $5.5 billion and commencing petroleum production at Africa’s largest refinery – the Dangote Refinery.
On the back of these milestones, Nigeria’s energy reforms and growing capacity are not only boosting national development but also strengthening regional energy security, supporting intra-African trade and laying the groundwork for sustainable job creation and economic diversification.
However, the present administration has done more in the energy transition space.
Driving energy transition through Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) involves converting vehicles to run on clean fuel to reduce reliance on traditional fuels like petrol and diesel, promoting sustainability and cost savings.
Labour
With the country celebrating the second year in office of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, members of organised Labour has scored the current administration below average,especially, in terms of insecurity where the country coughed out about N2.2 trillion as ransom, 14.4 million kidnapping cases of which more than 600,000 were killed within one year,
According to a labour leader in the financial sector, who preferred to be anonymous,”the last two years have been extremely challenging for the average Nigerian worker and by extension Nigerian citizens. This can be traced to the effect of government policies that have reduced the capacity of Nigerians financially and socially.
“While everyone desires an improved economy, the sacrifice needs to be manageable with palliative measures put in place in basic areas such as health, transport, housing, and education. The welfare policies announced by the government are only sufficient enough to have any impact on a very minute percentage of citizens. Sadly, the social support system has been eroded due to the pressure on benefactors. We cannot therefore say that the morale of workers has been boosted. Rather, the pressure on them continues to rise.”
Speaking with LEADERSHIP, the secretary general of Trade Union Congress (TUC) Comrade Nuhu Toro described the second shut down of Port Harcourt refinery as another anti-development step.
According to Toro, “the reported shutdown of the Port Harcourt Refinery barely six months after it was declared operational is deeply concerning.
“As a trade union center, we are alarmed by the lack of transparency and the seeming inconsistency in the refinery’s operations, especially given the enormous resources that have been committed to its rehabilitation.”
In addition, the TUC Scribe lamented that, “this development raises serious questions about accountability, project management, and the sincerity of the government’s promise to revamp local refining capacity as a means of reducing dependency on fuel importation and easing the burden on Nigerian workers and citizens.
“The refinery’s operation was supposed to bring relief; its sudden shutdown threatens not only the hopes of the people but also the jobs and safety of workers involved. The leadership of Congress will convene shortly to deliberate comprehensively on this matter and come up with a formal position.”
On his part, the president, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero criticised government policies that have adversely affected Nigerian workers. He condemned the arbitrary increases in telecom and electricity tariffs, the failure to honor agreements with trade unions, and the worsening economic conditions that have left many struggling. He warned that the government’s refusal to engage in meaningful social dialogue was pushing workers towards intensified resistance.
On governance and democracy, the NLC president called for accountability and the protection of democratic institutions, warning against the concentration of power and authoritarian tendencies. He stressed that trade unions must remain the voice of the people, ensuring that public officeholders act in the best interest of the masses rather than political elites.
Reacting on the revival of nation’s refineries, the general secretary of National Union of Chemical, Footwear, Rubber, Leather and Non-Metallic Employees (NUCFRLANMPE), Comrade Babatunde Olagoke, saw the second shutdown of Port Harcourt refinery as good step if only it is not politically motivated
“If the repair is backed up with sincerity of purpose, I think it is alright based on the number of years the refinery lied without being used. We heard that there are some products trapped inside due to long abandonment which they need to evacuate now. But my concern is why did they not do such properly before announcing the resumption six months ago.:Since we lack maintenance culture in Nigeria, I think we may watch to see the outcome of this if the maintenance is not political,” he pointed out.
Moreover , the secretary general, Food, Beverage and Tobacco Senior Staff Association (FOBTOB), Comrade Solomon Adedeji Adebosin noted that the administration needs to strengthen the insurance of Nigerian workers.
According to Adebosin, “Going by what was reported concerning the Group Life Insurance for the Civil Service, the implementation of the New Minimum Wage (even if haphazardly), I will say the administration has moved forward a bit. If the plan to pay the backlog of accrued pensions is also implemented, it’d be a great boost.”
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