Inflation Dips To 14.45% Amid Post-harvest Food Price Easing

…Rate falls below budget estimate for first time in 6 years

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday has shown.

This marks a 1.6 percentage point drop from October’s 16.05 per cent and represents the first time in six years that inflation has fallen below the government’s budget target.

The NBS said the deceleration suggests an improvement in inflation dynamics compared with the preceding month.

On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation in November 2025 was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024. The statistics agency noted that the comparison reflects inflation measured with a different base year, with November 2009 set at 100.

However, on a month-on-month basis, inflationary pressures were slightly firmer. The headline inflation rate rose to 1.22 per cent in November 2025, up from 0.93 per cent in October. This indicates that the average price level increased at a faster rate in November than in the previous month.

The figure aligns closely with President Bola Tinubu’s goal of 15 per cent by year-end, as outlined in his December 2024 presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly and reiterated in his New Year’s address.

The “Budget of Restoration,” themed around economic stabilization, had projected inflation cooling from over 34 percent to 15-16 percent, alongside GDP growth and exchange rate stability at N1,500 per dollar.

The NBS also reported that the 12-month average inflation rate for the period ending November 2025 stood at 20.41 per cent, representing a 12.36 percentage point decline from the 32.77 per cent recorded in November 2024.

A breakdown of the data shows a marked easing in both urban and rural inflation on a year-on-year basis. Urban inflation stood at 13.61 per cent in November 2025, down by 23.49 percentage points from 37.10 per cent recorded in the corresponding month of 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 per cent, compared with 1.14 per cent in October 2025. The 12-month average urban inflation rate was 20.80 per cent, significantly lower than 35.07 per cent in November 2024.

In rural areas, inflation was higher at 15.15 per cent year-on-year, though still 17.12 percentage points lower than the 32.27 per cent recorded a year earlier. Month-on-month rural inflation accelerated to 1.88 per cent in November 2025, up sharply from 0.45 per cent in October. The 12-month average rural inflation rate stood at 19.46 per cent, down from 30.71 per cent in November 2024.

The easing headline rate signals improving price stability, even as monthly movements suggest underlying cost pressures persist across some segments of the economy.

Analysts have linked the Inflation rate moderation to post-harvest easing in food prices, Naira stability and impact of the reforms the economy.

Analysts at Meristem attributed the softening to “the lingering impact of harvest supply on food prices and a relatively stable currency environment.” Widespread price drops in staples like maize, sorghum, paddy rice, and soybean bolstered this trend, with food inflation falling to 11.08 percent from 13.12 per cent in October.

Core inflation also eased to 18.04 per cent from 18.69 per cent.

The naira appreciated 1.45 percent month-on-month, averaging N1,443.85 per dollar versus N1,465.04 in October, providing further respite.

The CEO of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, emphasised that this cooling stems from “more of a lag effect than the earlier rebasing exercise” by the NBS, which in early 2025 shifted the base year to 2024 and updated consumption weights—slashing headline inflation from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January, with steady declines since except for February.
On their pars, Financial Derivatives Company analysts highlighted additional factors: a stable exchange rate, ample supply, base-year effects, and “growing consumer resistance.” They noted Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices dropped from N1,065 to N910 per litre—a 14.6 percent year-on-year decline—easing distribution costs.Urban-Rural Divide and Monthly Pressures

The NBS data revealed year-on-year, urban inflation stood at 13.61 per cent, down 23.49 points from 37.10 per cent in November 2024, with month-on-month easing to 0.95 per cent from 1.14 per cent.

Rural inflation, at 15.15 per cent year-on-year (17.12 points lower than last year’s 32.27 per cent), saw month-on-month acceleration to 1.88 per cent from 0.45 per cent.
The 12-month average headline inflation hit 20.41 per cent, a 12.36-point plunge from 32.77 per cent a year prior.

However, month-on-month headline inflation ticked up to 1.22 percent from 0.93 per cent, signaling firmer short-term pressures amid festive-season front-loading.

Also commenting on the November inflation data, analysts at Financial Derivatives Company, noted that the sustained disinflation reflected a combination of factors, including a stable exchange rate, ample supply, base-year effects, and growing consumer resistance.

“Notably, the price of PMS declined from N1,065 to N910, representing a 14.6 per cent year-on-year drop, which helped ease distribution costs and contributed meaningfully to the overall moderation in inflation.”

The analysts however noted that month-on-month inflation, which best captures near-term price momentum, rising to 1.22 per cent in November from 0.93 per cent “suggests that while inflation is moderating on an annual basis, short-term price pressures have begun to re-emerge.

“Dangote’s recent reduction of PMS prices to N699 per litre is expected to further ease price pressures in December. Although base-year effects are likely to wane, the sharp decline in fuel prices should more than offset this impact. Consequently, headline inflation is projected to moderate to 13 pe cent in December, bringing the full-year average to approximately 20.4%.

The disinflationary momentum is expected to extend into 2026.”

For analysts at CardinalStone the CPI data indicated that Nigeria’s inflation maintained its disinflationary path. “The reading slightly missed our estimate of 14.33 per cent. This moderation was largely skewed to the food basket, which settled at 11.08 per cent YoY, compared to 13.12 per cent observed in October, possibly linked to the spillover effect of the harvest season, which improved food supply. Similarly, the core basket printed lower at 18.04% (vs 18.69% in the prior month), as gas prices moderated and FX remained broadly stable.

“Expectedly, on a MoM basis, headline inflation scaled by 1.22% vs 0.93% recorded in the prior month, as expected, linked to frontloading activities due to festive-induced demands, mainly for food items.

“For the coming period, we see scope for headline print to halt its disinflation temporarily. For context, the new base year of 2024 that was introduced has created a very low base, which we believe would temporarily translate to a marked increase in headline print to 32.07% in December 2025, before normalising from January 2026.”