Low Food Prices: Agribusiness Expert Urges Revival Of GMP Policy

An agribusiness expert has called on the federal government to urgently revive Nigeria’s Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP) policy, warning that falling food prices, combined with rising input costs, could discourage farmers and trigger a fresh food crisis from mid-2026.

The President of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group (NABG), Arc. Kabir Ibrahim said that while the recent moderation in food inflation may appear positive for consumers, it is exacting a heavy toll on smallholder farmers and small-scale producers who are unable to recover production costs.

He cautioned that many farmers may be forced out of the 2026 farming season due to poor returns on their produce amid persistently high prices of fertilisers and agro-chemicals.

Ibrahim noted that a slowdown in production by smallholder farmers would ultimately reverse recent gains in food prices, as reduced supply would inevitably push inflation higher.

He argued that proactive intervention through a revived GMP framework could stabilise the sector, protect farmers’ livelihoods and safeguard national food security.

According to him, a renewed GMP policy should focus on staple crops across the six geopolitical zones, alongside targeted measures to reduce the cost of farm inputs. He said such an approach would help prevent supply disruptions and ensure consistent production levels over the medium term.

“I must emphasise that it is not yet uhuru for Nigerians when a reduction of food inflation comes with severe consequences on smallholder farmers and small-scale producers who cannot readily go back to production in the 2026 farming season due to low prices of their produce amidst high prices of inputs.

If lethargy among smallholder farmers sets in due to the debilitating effect of inability to break even, a corresponding scarcity will emerge to create worse inflation from the simple laws of supply and demand in economics, ” he said.

He added, “The resuscitation of GMP by the administration, targeting staples in the six geopolitical zones and intervening to bring down the prices of fertilisers and other inputs continuously, might avert a food crisis in Nigeria from mid-2026 to 2027 and beyond. To ensure the implementation of this programme, there must be buy-in of all relevant stakeholders to make the intervention impactful; otherwise, the programme will fail.”

The agribusiness leader also stressed the importance of stakeholder engagement, calling for structured consultations with farmers, input suppliers and experts to determine fair and realistic benchmark prices.

He explained that establishing equitable entry-point prices for key staples such as maize, rice, sorghum, and cassava would provide transparency and guide effective market intervention.

Ibrahim further advocated for the use of identified large-scale producers and aggregators to support procurement, with commodities reintroduced into the market through food banks and targeted distribution to vulnerable Nigerians. He said transparency and accountability would be critical to the success of any such intervention.

He added that although market intervention at a time of moderating inflation may appear counterintuitive, it remains necessary to recalibrate prices and improve the efficiency of Nigeria’s food system, warning that failure to act could have broader economic and political consequences.