Money Supply Dips To N123.36trn In January – CBN

…Currency outside banks falls to N5.21trn as post-festive demand eases

BY MARK ITSIBOR Abuja AND BUKOLA ARO-LAMBO, Lagos

Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) edged down to N123.36 trillion in January 2026, from N124.4 trillion in December 2025, signalling a modest contraction in system liquidity amid the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) intensified tightening measures.

Latest money and credit statistics from the CBN also revealed marginal declines in currency outside the banking system and total currency in circulation, reflecting easing cash demand after the year-end festive surge.

Currency held outside banks dropped 3.66 per cent to N5.21 trillion in January, down from N5.41 trillion the previous month. Total currency in circulation similarly moderated to N5.73 trillion from N5.732 trillion, underscoring stable but adjusting liquidity conditions at the year’s start.

These shifts highlight Nigeria’s persistent reliance on physical cash, especially in the informal sector, even as the CBN ramps up efforts to sterilise excess liquidity through Open Market Operations (OMO) and Treasury bill issuances. Broad money supply (M3)—encompassing currency in circulation, demand deposits, savings, time deposits, and foreign currency deposits—reflects these policy actions aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the foreign exchange market.

A deeper look at components shows divergent trends: net foreign assets plunged to N29.6 trillion, driven by reduced foreign currency holdings, while net domestic assets rose to N93.76 trillion, buoyed by domestic credit growth. Analysts at Norrenberger Research noted this balance sustains overall money supply despite external pressures, with year-on-year levels remaining elevated.

The January dip follows a familiar seasonal rhythm. Cash outside banks spiked to N5.41 trillion in December 2025 from N4.91 trillion in November, mirroring the N5.13 trillion surge from November 2024’s N4.65 trillion amid festive spending and informal sector activity.

Earlier in 2025, the trend fluctuated but stayed elevated: N4.65 trillion in October, N4.46 trillion in August (after July’s N4.42 trillion), N4.49 trillion in June, N4.63 trillion in May, N4.57 trillion in April, N4.60 trillion in March, N4.51 trillion in February, and N4.74 trillion in January.

Total currency in circulation echoed this, climbing to N5.26 trillion in November 2025 from October’s N5.06 trillion, with relative stability in the third quarter (N4.95 trillion in September, N4.92 trillion in August and July) and second quarter (N4.92 trillion in June, N5.01 trillion in May).

First-quarter figures hovered around N5 trillion: N5.01 trillion in April, N5 trillion in March, N5.03 trillion in February, and N5.04 trillion in January.

Market observers say these developments will test the CBN’s monetary strategy. While the post-festive pullback eases immediate pressures, sustained high cash holdings outside banks point to challenges in formalising transactions and boosting digital payments.

The modest M3 contraction, alongside stable domestic credit, suggests tightening is taking hold without derailing growth. Yet, with inflation and naira volatility in focus, analysts urge vigilance on liquidity trends as key gauges of macroeconomic stability.