Nigeria Reduces Fuel Imports As Refining Rises 57% In 3 Months

Nigeria has sharply cut fuel imports after domestic refining capacity surged 57 per cent over the past three months, marking a pivotal shift toward energy self-sufficiency.
Data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) in its January Fact Sheet revealed that total daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS, or petrol) supply dipped to 64.9 million litres per day—down from 74.2 million litres in December 2025.
Yet, domestic production the dominated, supply mix accounting for 40.1 million litres daily, or 57.5 per cent of total volume.

This marks a steep climb from just 17.1 million litres per day in October 2025.
PMS imports by oil marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) dropped to 25.8 million litres daily in January, underscoring the refining boom’s direct impact on reducing foreign dependence. “PMS supply via domestic refining increased due to improvements from Dangote Petroleum Refinery (DPRP), rising from 32 million litres per day to 40.1 million litres,” the NMDPRA report states.
Dangote Refinery drove much of this progress, boosting output by 25 per cent from December’s 32 million litres, though it fell short of its 75 million litres daily domestic target.

Operating at an average 61.27 per cent capacity utilisation—peaking at 67.69 per cent—the facility highlights scaling challenges amid Nigeria’s quest for fuel sovereignty.
State-owned refineries lagged: Port Harcourt is shuttered, with diesel evacuation averaging a meager 0.376 million litres daily from prior operations; Warri and Kaduna remain non-operational.
On performance of the state owned refineries, the report showed that Port Harcourt Refinery is shut down, although evacuation of diesel produced while the facility was operational averaged 0.376 million litres per day, while both the Warri and Kaduna refineries remain non-operational.

Meanwhile, Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) domestic supply averaged 10.9 million litres per day, offering glimmers of broader refining gains.
This refining upsurge is coming at a critical juncture for Nigeria’s economy.
Fuel imports have long drained forex reserves—costing billions annually—and fueled inflation amid subsidy reforms.
The 57 per cent domestic PMS share not only eases pressure on the naira but positions Nigeria as a potential refined products exporter, analysts say.
Analysts believe that while Dangote’s ramp-up is a milestone, sustaining it demands reliable crude feedstock and infrastructure upgrades.

Recall that Dangote Refinery had on February 11, 2026, announced that it had reached full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd)—a global first for a single-train refinery of that scale.
Reacting to that announcement, that billionaire investor Femi Otedola, hailed the refinery’s full capacity as game-changing. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach. The refinery’s ability to sustain full production represents a structural shift in Nigeria’s energy story after decades of dependence on imported refined products,” he posted on X.
Otedola emphasised broader impacts: reduced import bills to stabilize currency, boost investor confidence, and enable expansion to 1.4 million bpd with $12 billion more investment into petrochemicals.
NMDPRA’s data signals momentum, yet full independence hinges on rehabilitating public refineries and policy consistency under President Tinubu’s administration.

As import volumes shrink, retail prices have stabilised, providing relief to consumers and transporters.
Stakeholders are now awaiting February figures for signs of continued acceleration, with Dangote aiming to hit full stride and unlock Nigeria’s long-elusive refining self-reliance.