North-East, North-West May Be Worst Hit As 33.5m Nigerians Face Acute Hunger In 2027 – Report

About 33.5 million Nigerians, including children, nursing mothers and pregnant women are projected to face acute food and nutrition insecurity across 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between June and August 2027.

According to the latest edition of the Cedre Harmonise (CH) analysis released in Abuja yesterday, the projected figure shows an increase of about 6.7 million people compared to the October–December 2026 period when approximately 26.8 million people were classified in crisis or worse.

The outlook covers people expected to experience crisis (phase 3) or worse under the CH classification, including 891,228 IDPs in Borno, Sokoto and Zamfara states.

The North-East and North-West face the most severe conditions with Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto identified as areas of particular concern.

According to the assessment, persistent conflict and insecurity, declining agricultural production, weakening rural economies, high food inflation and shrinking household purchasing power are the key drivers of food and nutrition crisis.

Although food consumption conditions remain comparatively better in Bauchi, Benue, Cross River, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kogi, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Plateau and Rivers, displaced populations face particularly severe deprivation, the report noted.

According to the report, IDPs in Sokoto State are already experiencing Emergency (Phase 4) food consumption outcomes, while those in Zamfara are classified in crisis (Phase 3).

The report also painted a troubling picture of livelihoods across the assessed states, with conditions ranging from stress (Phase 2) to Emergency (Phase 4).

In the worst-affected northern states, insecurity and displacement have restricted access to farmland and employment, while escalating costs of fuel, transportation, energy, fertiliser and other agricultural inputs continue to undermine production and household incomes.

The nutritional outlook is equally shown alarming results, with outcomes ranging from minimal (Phase 1) to emergency (Phase 4). Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi recorded some of the most severe conditions.

Children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women face heightened risks of acute malnutrition amid inadequate dietary intake, disease outbreaks and limited access to essential healthcare, clean water and sanitation services.

“During June-August 2027, declining household food stocks, high food prices, reduced purchasing power and disrupted livelihoods are expected to increase food consumption pressures.

Inadequate dietary intake, reduced purchasing power, disease outbreaks, insecurity, displacement and limited access to essential healthcare and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) services may worsen acute malnutrition, particularly among children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women.

Timely food assistance, targeted cash transfers and livelihood support will be essential to limit further deterioration”, the report noted.

On mortality, the assessment identified concerning classifications in parts of Borno, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto, although it acknowledged that inadequate data on crude death rates and under-five mortality rates in several states limited a comprehensive assessment.

The report called for timely food assistance, targeted cash transfers and livelihood support to contain the projected deterioration.

It also recommended expanded nutrition surveillance, improved treatment of acute malnutrition and integrated healthcare, dietary and water and sanitation interventions.

Speaking at the presentation of the data in Abuja, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Marcus Ogunbiyi, said the findings should guide targeted government interventions to prevent further deterioration in food and nutrition security.

Ogunbiyi said the federal government was implementing programmes to increase domestic food production, improve farmers’ access to inputs and financing, expand mechanisation and irrigation, promote climate-smart agriculture and reduce post-harvest losses.

He, however, stressed that the effectiveness of such interventions depended on reliable data identifying vulnerable populations, the severity of food insecurity and the factors driving the crisis.

Ogunbiyi said, “However, government interventions must be continuously guided by credible, timely, and disaggregated evidence on where food and nutrition insecurity exists, the populations affected, the severity of the situation, and the underlying drivers. This is where the Cadre Harmonisé assumes particular importance.

“The CH analysis provides an important early-warning and decision-support mechanism for identifying vulnerable populations and geographical areas and for informing appropriate policy, programming, resource allocation and preventive action.

The results before us should therefore not be viewed simply as statistics, but as an important evidence base for strengthening interventions and ensuring that assistance and resources are targeted to areas and populations where they are most needed.”

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) called for early action to prevent the projected food crisis from escalating.

FAO representative in Nigeria and ECOWAS, Hussein Gadain, said the Cadre Harmonisé findings should serve as a call to action for government institutions, development partners, financial institutions, civil society and the private sector to prioritise preventive measures, protect vulnerable livelihoods and address the underlying causes of food insecurity.

The UN agency also reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Nigeria through technical assistance, stronger national capacities, improved food security monitoring and integrated interventions linking humanitarian assistance, development and peacebuilding.

He said, “Against this backdrop, instruments such as the Cadre Harmonisé have become increasingly important in ensuring that governments and partners can identify vulnerabilities early, prioritize investments and take preventive action before food crises escalate.

The analysis presented today provides nationally generated evidence to help government and partners anticipate these pressures, protect vulnerable livelihoods and direct investments where they can have the greatest impact.”