Nigeria’s food production outlook for the 2026 farming season is facing significant threats from rising input costs, insecurity, climate change and limited access to finance for farmers.
The All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) has warned that the combination of economic and security pressures could undermine efforts to boost agricultural productivity and food security nationwide.
Vice President of AFAN, Daniel Okafor, who spoke exclusively with LEADERSHIP on the challenges confronting farmers as the planting season begins, identified the soaring cost of farm inputs, particularly fertilisers, improved seeds and agrochemicals, as major obstacles this year.
He noted that labour costs had also risen sharply, further increasing production expenses for smallholder farmers, who account for more than 70 per cent of Nigeria’s food output.
His concerns come amid growing warnings from international agencies over worsening food insecurity.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and its partners have projected that about 35 million Nigerians could face acute hunger during the June–August 2026 lean season if urgent interventions are not implemented.
The AFAN vice president said recent volatility in global fertiliser markets had continued to affect local prices.
Earlier reports by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) warned that geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt global fertiliser supply chains and trigger price increases in developing countries, including Nigeria.
“Costs of inputs and labour, as well as climate change challenges, will be major issues. I do not even need to talk about funding because it is always a challenge, as farmers do not have access to finance,” Okafor said.
He further pointed out that insecurity remained a major concern for farmers across several farming communities, with persistent kidnappings, banditry and attacks on rural settlements forcing many farmers to abandon their farms or scale down cultivation.
According to Okafor, fear of attacks is discouraging farmers from fully participating in the planting season.
“Insecurity is not even allowing farmers access to their farms because anyone who leaves home for the farm is not sure of returning alive or without being abducted for ransom,” he said.
He also expressed concern about the delayed onset of rainfall, attributing it to climate change and shifting weather patterns.
While May traditionally marks the beginning of intensive farming activities in many parts of the country, he said rainfall has yet to become fully established in several farming areas.
Stakeholders have repeatedly urged the Federal Government to strengthen security in rural communities, expand farmers’ access to affordable credit and subsidised inputs, and invest in climate-smart agriculture to avert a deeper food crisis in the coming year.
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