Power Plants Failed To Utilise 656MW In August – NERC

Power plants connected to Nigeria’s national grid had enough capacity to produce an average of 4,758 megawatts (MW) of electricity in August 2026. However, they generated an average of only 4,102MW.

This means that the plants used about 86 per cent of the electricity they could have produced, leaving roughly 656MW, or 14 per cent of available capacity, unused.

The figures were contained in the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) August 2026 Operational Performance of Power Plants factsheet.

This was a decline compared with the load factors recorded in January, February and April, even though the average capacity available for dispatch rose to its highest level so far this year.

According to the Power Plants factsheet for August, an average of 4,758 megawatts (MW) was available for dispatch during the month, while average hourly generation stood at 4,102MW, representing 86 per cent utilisation of the available capacity.

A comparison with earlier factsheets released by the commission this year showed a mixed trajectory across the key metrics the regulator tracks: available capacity, load factor and grid stability.

Available capacity trend

NERC’s January 2026 factsheet showed that an average of 4,901MW was available for dispatch, representing a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 36 per cent of the 13,625MW installed base across the country’s grid-connected plants.

This declined in February 2026, when available capacity fell to 4,384MW, translating to a PAF of 32 per cent.

By April 2026, available capacity had further declined to 4,286MW, with the PAF dropping to 31 per cent.

August’s figure of 4,758MW therefore marks a recovery from the April low, representing an increase of 472MW, or about

11 per cent, over the four-month span between April and August. However, this figure remained below the January level of 4,901MW.

NERC’s August factsheet did not report a Plant Availability Factor, so a direct comparison of that metric with earlier months could not be made.

While available capacity improved between April and August, the load factor moved in the opposite direction. NERC recorded a load factor of 90 per cent in January, 93 per cent in February and 94 per cent in April, indicating that in each of those months, the grid drew down a high proportion of whatever capacity was available. In August, the load factor fell to 86 per cent, the lowest recorded in the four months for which data was available.

Average generation in August stood at 4,102MW, only marginally higher than the 4,048MW recorded in April, despite the larger pool of available capacity, underscoring the drop in utilisation.

On frequency stability, the August factsheet recorded an average lower grid frequency of 49.34Hz and an average upper grid frequency of 50.67Hz, both of which exceeded the prescribed target range of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz. This represented a narrower deviation from the target band compared to April, when the lower and upper frequencies were recorded at 49.20Hz and 50.76Hz, respectively.

On voltage stability, the August factsheet recorded an average lower grid voltage of 302.29kV and an average upper grid voltage of 349.68kV, against a prescribed range of 313.50kV to 346.50kV. The upper voltage figure improved compared to April’s 353.40kV, though the lower voltage figure in August was marginally weaker than April’s 302.60kV. In both months, voltage levels remained outside the commission’s prescribed limits.

Analysts noted that the implication was that the power sector in August was not solely a shortage of available generation capacity; it was also a failure to fully utilise the capacity that was available. Although average dispatchable capacity rose to 4,758MW, average generation increased only marginally to 4,102MW, leaving about 656MW—or 14 per cent of available capacity—unused.

The August figures therefore point to a weakening in the conversion of available capacity into actual electricity:

Among the top energy producers in August, Afam_2 recorded the highest load factor at 99 per cent, followed by Kainji_1 at 98 per cent and Egbin_1 at 96 per cent. This differs from April, when Ihovbor_2 recorded a load factor of 93 per cent against a Plant Availability Factor of 100 per cent, while Afam_2 recorded a load factor of 100 per cent and Odukpani_1 recorded 98 per cent.

NERC did not publish, or has not yet made publicly available, Operational Performance Factsheets for May, June and July 2026. As a result, a month-on-month comparison across that period could not be established, and the trend described in this report is based on a comparison of the January, February, April and August 2026 factsheets only. It could not be independently confirmed whether the decline in load factor and the improvement in available capacity occurred gradually across the missing months or shifted sharply within August alone.