S&P Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Inflation To 16.9% Citing Rising Energy, Transport Costs

Credit ratings firm S&P Global has lifted its forecast for Nigeria’s average inflation rate in 2026 to 16.9 per cent from a previous projection of 15.0 per cent, citing a stronger-than-expected pass‑through from rising oil prices into domestic energy costs.

In its latest report, Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q3 2026: Inflationary Pressures Will Persist, the agency said energy inflation has accelerated across emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EM EMEA), with Nigeria and Türkiye among the worst affected.

S&P also warned that food inflation could rise in the coming months because of higher transportation and fertiliser costs.

“Energy inflation has picked up broadly across the region, particularly in Nigeria and Türkiye,” the report said.

“We expect food inflation to increase over the coming months due to higher transportation and fertilizer costs.”

The ratings firm said the revised inflation outlook has reduced its expectations for Nigeria’s economic expansion because household consumption — a central growth driver — would be weakened by higher prices. S&P lowered its GDP growth forecasts by 30 basis points for both 2026 and 2027, to 3.7 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

Among major EM EMEA economies covered by the report, S&P said Nigeria had the largest upward revision to its inflation forecast.

S&P’s update comes amid renewed global commodity price pressures caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supply chains.

Recent data show Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93 per cent in May 2026 from 15.69 per cent in April, while global indices tracked by the World Bank and the FAO point to stronger energy and food-price dynamics.

The agency noted that price pressures in Nigeria may remain elevated despite expectations of exchange‑rate stability and higher oil output.