Value Addition, Not Import-driven Solutions Will Sustain Nigeria’s Economy— Economist

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), has advised that the federal government should strengthen its fiscal reforms and boldly encourage local production to sustain economic growth and development.
The Center argued that no economy will thrive on importing without building local industries.
Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the CPPE, while responding to the recent World Bank comment, warned that import-driven solutions risk exposing the economy to external shocks, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy markets.

“The emphasis should be on expanding and stabilising domestic production capacity, ensuring reliable crude supply to local refineries, and fostering an enabling environment for downstream investments,” Yusuf said.

The Centre faulted a World Bank policy recommendation calling for increased food and petroleum products import as a solution to Nigeria’s supply constraints.

In its Nigeria Development Update report released on April 7, the World Bank asked the West African giant to allow premium motor spirit (PMS) or petrol imports.

Clarifying its policy advice on April 10, the organisation said Nigeria should prioritize fuel supply stability and targeted social support, even as it considers long-term reforms to the PMS market.

The institution said such reforms must be carefully sequenced to avoid undermining energy security.

Yusuf, said the recommendation is “deeply troubling” and misaligned with the country’s current economic realities.

Yusuf said Nigeria is making measurable progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, pointing to improvements in foreign reserves, moderating inflation, and a more stable exchange rate regime.

“At a time when the country is consolidating macroeconomic gains and expanding its domestic refining capacity, the policy priority should be to strengthen these gains, not undermine them,” he said.

The economist said encouraging increased importation of petroleum products could reverse recent progress in the sector, heighten FX pressures, and weaken investments in local refining.

“Nigeria is gradually transitioning towards self-sufficiency in petroleum products supply, driven by significant private investments in domestic refining capacity. This momentum should be supported through policies that enhance local production and deepen industrial linkages,” Yusuf said.

He also faulted the assumption that increased imports would enhance competition, arguing that domestic producers operate under significant structural constraints.

“What is being presented as competition is, in reality, a structural imbalance. Nigerian firms contend with high energy costs, poor logistics, elevated financing costs, and multiple regulatory burdens, while foreign competitors benefit from more efficient systems and state-backed support,” he said.

Such disparities, according to Yusuf, create an uneven playing field that undermines local industry and discourages investment.

“This is not a level playing field. It weakens domestic capacity and perpetuates import dependence,” he added.

The CPPE chief said Nigeria’s past reliance on importation contributed to the collapse of domestic refining capacity and imposed significant fiscal and FX burdens on the economy.

The economist cited recent developments, including the operationalisation of the Dangote refinery, as evidence of the country’s capacity to achieve self-sufficiency with the right policy support.

“Encouraging importation at this stage would undermine investor confidence in local refining and reverse progress towards energy security,” Yusuf said.

He also raised concerns about increased food imports, warning that such a strategy could depress farmgate prices, discourage agricultural investment, and weaken rural livelihoods.

“Import surges in food commodities erode the incentives for local production and undermine the resilience of the domestic food system,” the CEO said.

He warned that heavy reliance on imports could worsen macroeconomic conditions by increasing demand for FX, putting pressure on the naira, and depleting external reserves.

Yusuf further said many advanced economies are shifting towards strategic protection of domestic industries, making the World Bank’s recommendation for import liberalisation in developing countries “paradoxical”.

“Major economies are prioritising domestic production, supply chain resilience, and local content development. It is therefore concerning that developing economies are being advised to adopt policies that could entrench dependence and weaken industrial capacity,” he said.

The CPPE urged the World Bank to recalibrate its policy advisory towards industrialisation-driven reforms that support domestic production, strengthen manufacturing ecosystems, and boost agricultural productivity.

“Import liberalisation is not a sustainable solution to Nigeria’s supply-side challenges,” Yusuf said.

What the economy requires, he said, is a production-driven growth model anchored on strong domestic capacity, energy security, and industrial development