The dynamics in the current race for the Speaker of the House of Representatives has never been more complicated compared to previous races.
For the first time since 1999, the opposition parties have a majority vote in the green chamber, enough to take a shot at producing the speaker which ordinarily was the preserve of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
By the end of the supplementary elections last week, opposition parties in the 10th House of Representatives were 182, a vote more than the statutory 181 threshold needed to elect a speaker.
Although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is yet to publish a comprehensive list of members-elect for the National Assembly, a breakdown by Civichive, which has been publishing election results as declared by INEC, shows that the APC has 175 seats while the major opposition and former ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has 118.
According to Civichive, other opposition parties performed thus: Labour Party (35 seats), NNPP (19 seats), APGA (five seats), SDP and ADC (two seats each), YPP has a single seat with 3 seats still pending.
On this premise, lawmakers from the seven political parties that won election into the 10th House of Representatives after an emergency meeting in Abuja stated that it was primed to contest the positions of Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the 10th National Assembly.
Speaking with journalists on the position of the Caucus, a member- elect from Anambra, Hon. Victor Afam Ogene, stated that the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria permits every elected member with the statutory right to gun for any leadership position, subject to the standing orders of the House.
However, while the opposition parties set to push for a change in the order of events, the APC leadership is still engrossed in the debate on whether or not the office should be zoned.
Shortly after the February 25 poll, party stakeholders stepped up lobbying for the speaker position to be zoned to their area. Party leaders from North West and North Central have been making strong cases for the seat to be ceded to their zone.
But what does this mean for the aspirants? Clearly they have to put their best foot forward.
So far, those who have indicated interest to contest the Speakership in the Tenth NASS include but not limited to the current Deputy Speaker, Hon. Ahmed Idris Wase (Plateau APC), Hon. Muktar Aliyu Betara (Borno APC and House Committee Chairman on Appropriations), chairman, House Committee on Navy, Yusuf Gadgi and the chairman, House Committee on Media and Publicity, Benjamin Kalu.
Hon. Alhassan Ado Doguwa (Kano APC and House Majority Leader), Hon. Aminu Sani Jaji who represents Kaura Namoda/Birnin Magaji Federal Constituency of Zamfara State.
So far, Wase has got endorsements from the no less than seven governors cut across party lines. For now, five APC governors are rooting for him even as they are pushing for North Central to get the position. They are Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, Yahaya Bello, Dapo Abiodun, Babagana Zulum and Abdulahi Sule of Ondo, Kogi, Ogun, Borno and Nasarawa respectively. Governors of Rivers and Osun states have also backed him.
Wase, according to other pundits, is banking on enjoying the sympathy of party leaders, especially governors who had prevailed on him to withdraw from the contest against Gbajabiamila during the ninth House.
He withdrew from the contest, supported Gbajabiamila and thereafter emerged deputy speaker upon the intervention of the APC leadership. So for him it’s payback time. He will also leverage his experience as a lawmaker and his loyalty to the party and the current NASS leadership.
Hon Yusuf Gagdi is also from the North Central and so if the zoning arrangement works for the zone he will be looked at as well.
He is young and vibrant, a prospect he would believe will work in his favour. Much more, he hopes to play up his credentials as a robust lawmaker.
As the currently represents Pankshin/Kanam/Kanke constituency in the 9th National Assembly, Gagdi, a first term lawmaker in the House of Representatives, set a record as the first first-term federal lawmaker to have 6 self sponsored bills assented to by the President. Two of the bills are for federal universities. The seventh bill awaits accent.
While banking on his experience as a former deputy speaker of the Plateau State House of Representatives, he’ll project his ability to be the bridge between the young and the old in bringing about meaningful growth and development in the country.
Hon. Doguwa, House Majority Leader who represents Doguwa Federal Constituency of Kano State never hides the fact that he wants to be a speaker as a life ambition. Though he won his re-election in the last NASS election, he will hope that the party zones the position to the North West where he is from.
One of the strong contestants is Hon. Betara, a member representing Biu/Bayo/Shani Federal Constituency in Southern Borno State. He is said to enjoy the support of most returning lawmakers. He stands out as one of the most ranking and experienced lawmakers who has been in the House since 2007.
Betara who has served as chairman of various committees in the House since 2007 till date would have to deal with the notion that the North East zone where he is from might not be considered for the Speaker seat should the party zone the position because the Vice President-elect, Senator Kashim Shettima is not just the zone but also from Borno State as he.
Still, for these aspirants, the lure to working strongly with the opposition becomes stronger. This possibility, according to some pundits, raises the prospects of a repeat of the 2015 National Assembly leadership saga.
Recall that while APC, then a young ruling party, dazed by its victory over PDP and foot dragged on how to balance the power equation among the blocs within its fold, the n-PDP led by former Senate President Sen Abubakar Bukola Saraki and a former House Speaker, Hon Yakubu Dogara, in alliance with PDP lawmakers, took control of the National Assembly leadership.
Saraki and Dogara’s emergence was against the run of play at the time, considering that current Senate President Sen Ahmed Lawan and the incumbent Speaker, Hon Femi Gbajabiamila were the party’s favorites to get the positions then.
But other bookmakers aver that such notion might not happen because the party would leverage on the benefit of hindsight. Also the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, whose input on the matter is the most critical, is considered a more hands on politician than his soon to be predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, to allow a repeat of the 2015 scenario.
Nevertheless, pundits argue that the challenge might be the inability of the various opposition parties that will make up the 10 assembly to forge a common front. This is especially as the opposition parties seem to have different leanings.
For instance, while Labour Party members might be more disposed to working with the PDP as the major opposition party, the NNPP is believed to be more pro-APC.
But that is not all. The tussle within the APC poses a further threat to the party’s supremacy on the matter if not well handled. For instance, the current speaker appears to be conflicting with the position of South West governors on whom to support.
But according to political commentator, Bitru Ibrahim Adamu, the bulk stops on the desk of the president elect, for whom it is imperative to have the right team to work with as “one of the fundamental factors that will determine the stability, peace and progress of the next government will largely hinge on the nature of the leadership of the National Assembly (NASS).”
He added, “For the incoming government of Tinubu, the questions Nigerians and international observers would like to ask are: What is going to be the quality and character of his government? Is it going to unite or divide the already divided and tensed Nigeria?
“What type of persons is he going to work with in order for him to actualise the vision and policy objectives of his administration when he is sworn in on May 29, 2023? These and more questions are what define the high expectations of Nigerians when he officially assumes office as the president of Nigeria next month.
“Of course, the answer to the above questions will depend fundamentally on the quality of members of Tinubu’s team which will consist of both members of his cabinet and the leadership of NASS,” he said.
Also, public analyst, Mike Obiekwe, argues that the APC would need to figure the right blend of being proactive, reflective and firm while leading the conversation on how the leadership of the 10th National Assembly emerges.
“It will be very critical not just for the party but for the president elect as well because he will have the responsibility of interfacing with the lawmakers.
“As for the opposition trying to produce the leadership of the chambers, as much as they have a right to, albeit in an unconventional sense with regards to Nigeria, it is critical for them not to focus only on the politics of it, but to be mindful of the situation of the country at this time,” he said.
