2027 Favours Tinubu, North Will Wait Till 2031 – Ex-ACF Secretary General Sani

A former Secretary-General of the apex Northern socio-cultural organisation, Arewa Consultative Forum, (ACF)  Anthony Sani, speaks with AZA MSUE in Kaduna on a wide range of issues including why the northern elders cannot intervene in former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai’s dispute with the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu. He also speaks on the 2027 elections and why the northern region will wait till 2031 before asking that the presidency be zoned to it. Excerpts:

Are you not worried about the persistent insecurity ravaging the country, especially in the north?

The persistent insecurity ravaging the country stems from a shortage of well-trained, properly equipped security personnel. They are also not adequately motivated to secure the nation. If these challenges are confronted with determination, and the United States of America is prepared to lend its support with intelligence, training, and equipment, it could go a long way toward addressing insecurity across the nation. And since military might alone cannot secure the nation, there is an urgent need to address the underlying causes of insecurity, including ignorance, poverty, and unemployment. For example, the current level of out-of-school children should be addressed lest they become terrorists of tomorrow.

What do you think is difficult for the government to end insecurity?

A lack of sufficient resources to provide a sufficient number of trained and equipped security personnel is part of the challenges. Also, there seems to be a paucity of resources to address the underlying causes, including a lack of education and insufficient resources to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Who is to be blamed for the insecurity in the northern region?

How can you ask such a question as if you do not know that being a third-world country is not a matter of choice but one of capacity? It is for that reason that most of the countries in the Sahel region are experiencing insecurity, which is due to a lack of capacity needed to dominate the terrorists in the forests. Please note that insecurity is not exclusive to the North but transcends regional and national boundaries in the Sahel Region.

Ahead of the 2027 elections, what do you think is the fate of the opposition PDP and ADC in their bid to wrest power from the APC-led federal government?

An opposition that complains that the country is moving toward a one-party state cannot reasonably be expected to supplant the ruling party.

Many Nigerians are still not satisfied with the newly signed electoral Act by President Bola Tinubu as they want real time e-transmission of 2027 electrons results, what is your stand on this?

The amended electoral act, just passed and assented to by the president, provides for the electronic transmission of results where there is internet coverage. But when network challenges arise, manual transmission is allowed. This is to guard against shortchanging polling units amid challenges. I therefore do not see why anybody should be dissatisfied with the electoral act. You may wish to note that if the electronic transmission is flawless, most developed democracies would use it. But that is not the case for obvious reasons.

How do you rate President Tinubu’s fight against corruption compared to other former presidents?

It appears the government has no plan for punitive measures against corruption. Rather, it boasts of a preventive approach. Whether it is working satisfactorily is what most Nigerians are unsure of.

Do you see Northern minorities supporting Tinubu against a core northern candidate like Atiku Abubakar?

I do not like divisive questions. All the same, I wish to let you know that former VP Atiku could not defeat Bola Tinubu in the North in 2023 precisely because of the politics of zoning. The North wanted the presidency to be in the South after Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in office. And as long as the politics of zoning exists, it means the presidency will move to the North in 2031. President Bola Tinubu is the only southerner who cannot govern beyond 2031. Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi cannot do that because each can govern for eight years. This is because the decision for any of them to do only one tenure is not exclusively for them to make, but rather by their groups. Most of all, the opposition is not confident of its capacity to unseat the ruling party. For example, at one point, they talk of unseating the ruling party, and at another point, they accuse President Bola Tinubu of taking the country to one party. That does not add up.

Do you see Atiku winning in 2027 if given the ADC Presidential ticket?

As long as the politics of zoning is the fashion and the North expects the presidency in 2031, the odds favour the sitting president. Most of all, just as the opposition split into PDP, LP, NNPP and Nyesom Wike’s G5 in 2023, history is about to repeat itself, considering the opposition has split into PDP, ADC, NNPP and Wike’s faction of PDP. President Bola Tinubu may again rise from the ashes of the opposition split.

Can you rate Tinubu’s administration on the economy, insecurity, poverty, and power generation?

The reforms have brought some degree of stability in the value of the naira, and foreign exchange reserve and inflation have dropped. The only challenge is the cost of living despite a drop in inflation. The decision to relax the importation of food has brought the price of food down, but at the expense of local production. There is a need for an appropriate balance between productivity and affordability.

The government should brace up in electricity supply and the insecurity, especially now that America is willing to help in training and sharing of intelligence, as well as with equipment.

What do you think is responsible for the backwardness of the northern region in terms of development, poverty and insecurity?

When some of you talk of the North being backward, I wonder the reference point. Education reached the South many decades before it reached the North. What is more, nearness to the ports conferred advantages to the South. And if you do some trend analyses by comparing the level of education, health and infrastructure at independence with what obtains now, you would hardly avoid the conclusion that the North has tried, and should count its blessings and name them one by one in order to know what the Lord has done for the North. Though the North and the nation can do better, I think the country has tried despite being a third world, which is not a matter of choice but of capacity.

Can you assess the preparation for the forthcoming 2027 polls as well as the issue of credibility?

With the passage of the new electoral act, which provides for the electronic transmission of results where there are no network challenges, we expect the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to do better. But INEC alone does not possess the magic wand. Voters need to turn out and vote. This is because feckless leaders are “elected” by those who do not vote.

Is the North worried about the acrimony between two of prominent sons, the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and the NSA, Mllam Nuhu Ribadu?

The North cannot concern itself with problems between individuals. There are more serious challenges facing the North. After all, El-Rufai has said they are now in the bracket of elders. They can solve their own individual problems.

Can the Northern leaders intervene?

It seems you will soon expect northern leaders to intervene when husband and wife have challenges in their marriages. Attending to feuds between individuals is not a reason for the existence of elders’ platforms.

Are there things the northern leaders could do to help end the insecurity in the region?

Insecurity is not an exclusive preserve of the North but transcends regional boundaries. So do not limit it to the North.

I think all that is required is for Nigerians to come together and unleash their collective potential to address common challenges. This is because it is possible to make the most of our God given diversity by working hard to overcome what divides the people.

What are the things expected from the governors there that they aren’t doing?

The governors and the federal government are trying, but their efforts are not good enough due to a dearth of resources. That is to say, this may be because of the capacity in terms of resources.

Nigeria is fast becoming a one-party state. What are the benefits or dangers in that?

How do you know Nigeria is fast becoming a one-party state? When people make judicious use of their democratic rights and ensure votes count, there would be no one-party state.

So, only the people can make the nation a one-party state, and not the president, who is also a product of elections. Therefore, there is no need for fear as long as the people themselves do not want a one-party system.

We didn’t see that during the regime of the late President Muhammadu Buhari. Is there anything President Bola Tinubu is doing right or wrong that is attracting everyone to his party, the APC?

It may well be that people appreciate the reforms and the Renewed Hope aimed at providing order, justice, liberty and prosperity for all.