World Bank Projects 4.4% Growth for Nigeria In 2026, 2027

The World Bank has projected a 4.4 per cent growth for Nigeria this year and for 2027, as it expects the sub-Saharan Africa region to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.7 per cent in 2027, supported by more substantial investment and exports.

The World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday, said global growth is projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from the June forecast.

Noting that the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, it said the pickup in growth projections for SSA is predicated on the external environment not deteriorating further and on substantial improvements in security in several countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS).

The World Bank had estimated SSA’s growth for 2025 at 4.0 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent in 2024, a growth supported by moderating inflation. This growth was also driven by higher-than-expected commodity prices, particularly for gold, other precious metals, and coffee, as well as boosted fiscal revenues in several countries.

It had estimated Nigeria’s growth at 4.2 per cent in 2025, up from 4.1 per cent in 2024, driven by expansion in services, particularly finance and information and communication technology and a modest recovery in agriculture.

Growth across SSA economies was mixed, with slowing growth among industrial commodity exporters offset by strengthening growth elsewhere. While South Africa’s growth rose to 1.3 per cent, supported by more reliable electricity supply, a bumper agricultural harvest, and a pickup in business confidence, Ethiopia’s growth eased to a still-robust 7.2 per cent from 8.1 per cent in 2024.

The World Bank noted Mrt SSA’s projected growth remains below the region’s long-term average and is insufficient to make substantial progress in reducing extreme poverty. The sharp decline of official development assistance (ODA) since 2024 has further constrained fiscal space and will undermine the resilience of SSA economies to adverse shocks.

It noted that global inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6 per cent in 2026, reflecting softer forecasts for the markets and lower energy prices. Growth is expected to pick up in 2027 as trade flows adjust and policy uncertainty diminishes.

World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics, Indermit Gill, commenting, said “With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty.

“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets. Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow more slowly than it did in the troubled 1990s, while carrying record levels of public and private debt.

“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”

In 2026, growth in developing economies is expected to slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before edging up to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen. Growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, reaching an average of 5.6 per cent over 2026–27, buoyed by firming domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.

However, the World Bank said this will not be sufficient to narrow the income gap between developing and advanced economies. Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected to be three per cent in 2026—approximately a percentage point below its average for the 2000-201committeed. At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12 per cent of the level in advanced economies.

“These trends could intensify the job-creation challenge confronting developing economies, where 1.2 billion young people will reach working age over the next decade. Overcoming the job challenge will require a comprehensive policy effort centred on three pillars. The first is strengthening physical, digital, and human capital to raise productivity and employability.

“The second is improving the business environment by enhancing policy credibility and regulatory certainty so firms can expand. The third is mobilising private capital at scale to support investment. Together, these measures can help shift job creation toward more productive and formal employment, supporting income growth and poverty alleviation.” the report read.