Nigeria’s Per Capita Oil Production Risks Serious Cutback In 2030

An energy communication researcher, Dr Adeola Yusuf, has called on the federal government to demand strategic communication plans from oil producers and contractors, detailing phase-by-phase progress on the 3 million barrels oil production target set for 2030.

Yusuf, who doubles as the Team Lead of Platforms Africa, made this call during a plenary session at the just concluded Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026, attended by minister of state for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, and permanent secretary, Ministry of Petroleum Resources,  Patience Oyekunle, as well as captains of industry.

Speaking on “Impact of Storytelling in Attracting Investment in Nigeria and Africa’s Energy Transformation,” Dr Yusuf declared that research has shown that policies and projects with phase-by-phase strategic communication have better success rates compared to those without proper communication.

He emphasised that Nigeria’s current per capita oil production will still be above the projected output in 2030, even if the target is met, highlighting the need for strategic communication to achieve the goal.

Yusuf called on oil producers who have been given the task and contracts to raise Nigeria’s oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2030 to work hard to deliver on the mandate given to them by President Bola Tinubu.

“The minister, you have been working hard on the mandate and I urged you, sir, to adopt and demand contractors and producers to adopt strategic communication on the phase by phase development on the task.

“Our president and all of us cannot, as a country, fail to meet up with the oil output target set for 2030. The simple reason for this is that the current per capital oil production by Nigeria at the moment will still be above the per capital output by the country in 2030 even if the target is met. We can now imagine how the scenery will be if we don’t work hard to meet the target.

“With the current production of 1.6 million barrels daily as of today when the country’s population stands at around 200 million, the per capita oil production is 0.008 barrel per person compared to 0.007 barrel per person by 2030 when the country’s population is envisaged to hit 401 million people.

“As huge as the 3 million barrels daily production target looks, it is still going to be below the current production of 1.6 million barrels daily in terms of per capita production and this is a major reason we can not still lag behind the target set by Mr. President, which is being rigorously pursued by the minister,” he said.

Discussing the outcome of his research work conducted on the Press Coverage of the Presidential Accent to Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) – now an act – between 2018 and 2021, Yusuf disclosed that findings showed that progress on the bill was better communicated in the media in 2021 after passage and during the presidential accent to the bill in August 2021.

President Muhammadu Buhari, on 16 August 2021, signed the PIB 2021 into law, following its passage by the National Assembly in July 2021, ending a long wait since the early 2000s.

“However, progress on the bill was earlier poorly communicated after passage in 2018 and the subsequent Withholding of presidential accent to it in the same year was also met with official silence.

“The highlight of poor communication from the then policy makers as shown in the press coverage in 2018 showed that even when the president officially communicated to the National Assembly that he had declined accent to the bill, the whole nation and global investors were kept in the dark that such has happened.

“On June 8, the Senate sent to the president for final assent into law the harmonised draft Bill earlier approved by the House of Representatives in January of the year.

“The decision was conveyed in separate presidential communications delivered to the leadership of the two Chambers of the National Assembly on July 29, 2018. The news, first reported by Platforms Africa and The Cable online, was later confirmed one month after by the aide to the president on Legislative matters, Senator Ita Enang, on August 29, 2018.

He unambiguously declared that the letter of accent decline was sent to the National Assembly exactly on July 29, 2018,” Yusuf said.

“This, compared to what we later experienced in 2021 showed the power of strategic communication in policy formation and actualisation.

“Therefore, for Nigeria to meet its 3 million barrels daily production target in 2030, there should be a deliberate communication – both internally and externally – by those saddled with the responsibility about progress on the target,” Yusuf concluded.

Having the executive secretary, Petroleum Trust and Development Fund (PTDF), Ahmed Galadima Aminu, as lead speaker, the panel also featured D. Samuel Erhigare Onoji, Principal/CE, PTI; Sophia Mbakwe, Executive President, Busines Services, NNPC; and

Engr. Yetunde Aladeltan, Ph.D, National Chairman, NPetE / Asocate Professor, University af Abuja as panelists.

Other panelists and speakers at the plenary session moderated by Communications Manager, Chevron, Dr Victor Anyaegbudike, were  Tolu Olanrewaju, Senior Advisor, Upstream Commercial & Business Development, Chevron Nigeria/Mid Afica; Joy Osomiambe-O, Regional Manager Africa, World Energy Council;

Dr Amina Danmadami, senior manager NMDPRA; and Tolulope Longe, president, Women in Energy, Oil and Gas (WEOG).