Global Goods Trade Rises To $13.7tn As AI, EV Demand Boosts Volumes

Global goods trade reached about US$13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, a 12.5 per cent increase from the same period in 2025, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported.

UNCTAD attributed the expansion partly to higher prices and to robust activity in East Asia, where developing economies recorded double‑digit quarterly growth. The agency cited rising demand for products linked to artificial intelligence and electric vehicles — notably critical minerals, semiconductors and batteries — as key contributors to the goods‑trade upswing.

Sector and commodity data show notable gains in early 2026. Critical minerals recorded 38 per cent growth in the first quarter, while semiconductors rose by 25 per cent. Batteries expanded by 15 per cent, information and communications technology goods grew by 14 per cent, and electric cars increased by 11 per cent. Services trade also rose, but at a slower pace, climbing 10.5 per cent year‑on‑year in the first half of 2026.

UNCTAD said East Asia was the principal driver of the quarter‑on‑quarter expansion. When East Asia is included, developing economies and South‑South trade showed double‑digit growth over the past 12 months.

Excluding East Asia, however, developing economies as a group recorded an overall contraction in the first quarter, largely due to weaker exports and imports to and from the Middle East and South Asia.

Intra‑regional trade rose in most regions, though South America continued to report relatively weak intra‑regional flows. Over the 12‑month period, import growth was strongest in Africa, East Asia and Europe.

Non‑tariff measures and LDCs

UNCTAD warned that least developed countries (LDCs) are losing about 10 per cent of their exports to G20 markets because they cannot meet increasingly complex non‑tariff measures (NTMs). The agency noted that while recent public attention has focused on tariff tensions following 2025 trade disruptions, NTMs have become a dominant driver of trade costs for many economies, especially developing countries.

UNCTAD’s April 2026 note pointed to a notable upswing in global trade in 2025, driven by strong manufacturing activity, which expanded by 11 per cent. Agricultural trade also rose, supported by higher activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.

UNCTAD reported that global foreign direct investment (FDI) rose six per cent to US$1.6 trillion in 2025, with high‑income economies accounting for much of the increase. The agency said higher inflows to developed countries and some high‑income developing economies underpinned the gain.

Nigeria registered a sharp drop in FDI in Q1 2026, attracting US$135.08 million compared with US$357.80 million in Q4 2025. UNCTAD’s country‑level data show Nigeria received total capital inflows of about US$10.37 billion during the quarter, driven mainly by portfolio investments and other short‑term financial instruments rather than FDI.

Whether demand for AI and EV supply‑chain inputs sustains goods‑trade growth through the rest of 2026.

The impact of non‑tariff measures on export opportunities for LDCs and policy responses to improve compliance capacity.

FDI flows into Africa and Nigeria, and whether portfolio-driven capital inflows translate into longer‑term investment.