Nigeria’s Farm Produce Inflation Surges To 21.99% In August

Nigeria’s farm produce inflation accelerated to 21.99 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, the highest so far this year.

The August figure marks a reversal from the moderation recorded in May, when farm produce inflation slowed to 13.26 per cent, before rising to 21.70 per cent in June and easing slightly to 19.82 per cent in July, analysis of the latest inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).by Nairametrics has shown.

It also represents almost a doubling of the rate recorded at the start of the year, highlighting renewed pressure on agricultural commodities despite the broader moderation in headline inflation.

NBS data shows that farm produce inflation generally accelerated during the first eight months of 2026, despite month-to-month fluctuations.

The rate stood at 10.93 per cent in January, with the farm produce index rising from 108.9 in 2025 to 120.8 in 2026. It increased to 13.27 per cent in February, as the index moved from 110.0 to 124.6, before climbing further to 15.27 per cent in March, when the index rose from 113.3 to 130.6.

The upward trend continued in April, with inflation reaching 18.86 per cent as the index increased from 117.7 to 139.9. However, the rate moderated sharply to 13.26 per cent in May, even though the 2026 index rose slightly to 140.1, compared with 123.7 a year earlier.

Farm produce inflation rebounded to 21.70 per cent in June, with the index increasing from 119.8 in June 2025 to 145.8. It then eased to 19.82 per cent in July, although the 2026 index continued to rise, reaching 149.9 from 125.1 a year earlier.

By August, inflation had climbed to 21.99 per cent. The index stood at 151.4, compared with 124.1 in August 2025.

Overall, the farm produce index increased from 120.8 in January to 151.4 in August, representing a 25.3 per cent rise over the eight-month period.

The increase comes against a difficult food-security backdrop. Nigeria had 36.3 million people facing Crisis or worse levels of food insecurity in August 2026, the highest number among the 17 African countries monitored by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

The renewed pressure on farm produce prices is significant because agriculture remains a major source of employment. NBS data previously showed that more than 25 million people were engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing in 2023, accounting for 30.1 per cent of the country’s workforce.

At the same time, investment into the sector remains relatively modest. Nigeria’s agricultural sector attracted $167.25 million in capital importation in 2025, according to NBS data.

Speaking, the Coronation Asset Management Limited stated that Nigeria’s agricultural sector continues to underperform its potential due to long-standing structural problems and recent economic shocks.

The firm said flooding remains a recurring threat, destroying farmland almost every season, with catastrophic damage recorded in recent years across most states of the federation, including major commercial farms and smallholder plots.

The asset manager noted that these losses had a delayed effect on agricultural output, as harvests were impaired, restocking levels dropped and many farmers lost seeds and equipment.

Coronation Asset Management added that insecurity across the North-West, North-Central and North-East, the country’s primary food-producing zones compounds climate shocks by forcing farmers off their land and disrupting supply chains.

Underlying these challenges, it said, is a productivity problem that predates other constraints, with smallholder farmers working with minimal irrigation, poor access to quality inputs and little mechanisation.

The firm also noted that policy shifts in 2023, including petrol subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification, sharply raised fuel and input costs, squeezing farmer margins and prompting many smallholders to reduce cultivated areas.