Only 34% Of Sampled Nigerians Are Confident INEC’ll Conduct Credible Polls – Yiaga Africa

A survey of Nigerians by Yiaga Africa has shown that only 34 per cent of Nigerians are confident that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will conduct credible elections, compared to 45 per cent in the two previous surveys.

Interestingly, Nigerians are ready to vote in the 2027 general elections but insecurity, weak trust in electoral institutions and the monetisation of politics could keep millions away from the polls, the third round of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0) has said.

The report released on Wednesday and titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” drew on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), conducted in September 2026 by telephone and for the first time, face-to-face in rural communities.

Meanwhile, the Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) has stressed the need to ensure that at least 50 per cent of Nigeria’s registered voters participate in the 2027 general elections.

The group warned that turnout substantially below 50 per cent would raise serious questions about the democratic credibility and legitimacy of the process.

In a statement made available to LEADERSHIP, the Yiaga Africa report also tracked changes since its National Voting Intentions Surveys – NVIS 1.0 (December 2025) and NVIS 2.0 (March 2026).

Key findings indicated that Nigerians are willing to vote but commitment is thin and not deepening, as 84 per cent said they are “likely” or “very likely” to vote, up from 77 per cent and 73 per cent in the previous surveys.

The results, however, showed that the proportion of those “very likely” to vote has edged down from 52 per cent to 47 per cent in the latest survey, while only 41 per cent are very certain of their choice.

The survey also found that insecurity is the biggest barrier, as 61 per cent said fear of violence could stop them from voting, rising to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent stated that improved security would make them more likely to vote.

It further showed that trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is fragile, with 34 per cent confident that the commission will conduct credible elections, compared to 45 per cent in the two previous surveys; 39 per cent are not confident, rising to 62 per cent in the South-East and 57 per cent in the South-South.

According to the study, citizens trust technology more than institutions, with 49 per cent trusting BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission, while awareness of electoral reforms has risen from 24 per cent to 62 per cent since December 2025.

The survey results also showed that performance will be central to voter choice in 2027, as 54 per cent disapprove of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rate the economy as poor or very poor.

The outcome of the study further showed that: “A desire for change in leadership (49%) is the leading motivation to vote, while the economy and jobs (38%) and security (36%) are the dominant policy priorities. Together, these findings suggest that government performance and material conditions will be central to voting choices in 2027.

“Young people show weaker voting intention and greater electoral distrust: Only 40% of young people say they are very likely to vote, compared with 64% of those aged 61 and above. Young respondents also report greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and substantially greater reliance on social media for election information.

“The judiciary is not widely perceived as a credible safety valve: 63% have little or no confidence that the judiciary will resolve electoral disputes fairly, rising to 81% in the South-South. This suggests limited public confidence in the institution expected to provide final resolution when electoral outcomes are contested.”

Speaking on the release of the survey, Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, Safiya Bichi, said Nigerians have not given up on elections but want to vote and see it as their duty, with the belief that their votes can make a difference.

“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money. Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem, and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics. With the presidential election on 16 January 2027, the window to act is short,” Bichi noted.

Yiaga Africa, therefore, called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) by November 2026, prioritising the North-East, North-West and North-Central, and to protect voters, not only election materials.

It urged INEC to make a binding public commitment to real-time upload of all polling unit results to IReV, publish and stress-test its results management protocol and run targeted confidence-building in the South-East and South-South.

The organisation asked the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballots are printed and to publish clear timelines for election petitions.

Yiaga Africa also called on political parties and candidates to compete on costed plans for security and the economy, and to sign and honour the Peace Accord and an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.

It equally urged civil society organisations and the media to shift voter education from exhortation to assurance, target young people, women and under-reached zones, and counter election misinformation.