Cracks In South West APC May Affect Tinubu’s Re-election, Stakeholders Warn

Stakeholders in the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State have warned that cracks within the party in the South West zone may affect President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid and the party’s victory in 2027.

They argued that recent reconciliation moves were cosmetic, saying the cracks within the party in the zone have profound implications for regional political instability that will adversely affect the ruling party’s core power base required for the President’s reelection

A chieftain of the party in Ibadan, Chief Adeogun Ogunwale, told LEADERSHIP Friday that the recent efforts by top regional leaders highlighted a concerted drive to “bury all grievances” and initiate heavy grassroots reconciliation.

He said lingering primary election casualties, localised leadership disputes, and parallel campaign structures keep these political cracks highly volatile.

Ogunwale identified the major implications of these political cracks to include a threat to President Tinubu’s 2027 election foundation, deepening Fractures and parallel power structures in key states, disruption of regional agenda and policy synergy, and opportunities for opposition exploitation.

He explained that the ongoing high-level stakeholders’ meetings emphasise that the party leadership views southwest unity not just as a regional preference, but as an existential necessity for holding onto federal power.

“If the current reconciliation committees successfully manage the egos and ambitions of aggrieved state actors, the party can consolidate its base.

“If these cracks widen into open defiance, it could trigger a domestic political shift that will severely test the resilience of the Tinubu presidency heading into the next election cycle”, he said.

To ensure victory in 2027, he added that political leaders have continued to unite ahead of the election, intensifying grassroots mobilisation strategies during a major zonal assembly in Lanlate and other parts of the state.

Also speaking, another chieftain, Mudasiru Ademola, stated that reconciling aggrieved members within the party was expected to significantly boost the President’s re-election and enhance the party’s chances of overall victory in the 2027 general elections.

According to him, by settling internal disputes stemming from primary elections, the party aims to build a unified political front in a critical Southwestern state.

He identified maximising vote yield in the Southwest, aligning major factions, resolving issues at the grassroots level, and countering the incumbent opposition as key factors in President Tinubu’s re-election and party victory.

The state party’s publicity secretary, Olawale Sadare, expressed confidence in the party’s chances of winning the 2027 general elections, citing renewed reconciliation efforts among party leaders and stakeholders.

Sadare stated that efforts to resolve internal disagreements had begun to yield positive results ahead of the elections, saying “the APC was targeting at least one million votes for President Bola Tinubu in the presidential election while working to secure victory for all its candidates in the state.

He described the decision of former Senate Leader and the party’s 2023 governorship candidate, Senator Teslim Folarin, to mobilise his supporters for the APC as a major boost to its reconciliation efforts.

Folarin declared his support for the party’s governorship candidate, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, on Monday after returning to Ibadan from an overseas trip.

According to Sadare, the party’s chances had improved following efforts to restore unity among its members. He credited Tinubu’s intervention with helping to resolve disagreements and persuade aggrieved stakeholders to work towards the party’s success in 2027.

He said the APC had anticipated disagreements following its primaries and established committees comprising prominent stakeholders and credible individuals to drive its reconciliation campaign. He added that the president’s intervention had helped persuade some aggrieved leaders to set aside their differences.

Sadare also expressed confidence in the support of prominent party members, including Folarin, Senator Abdulfatai Buhari and Chief Adebayo Adelabu, saying their involvement had strengthened the APC’s position ahead of the elections.

Despite its optimism, the party said it would sustain its reconciliation efforts to bring all aggrieved members and stakeholders on board. Sadare added that its candidates would continue engaging voters while promoting Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the Oyo AHEAD Project associated with Alli.