Economic Growth Slows To 3.98% In Q3

Nigeria’s economic growth moderated in the third quarter of 2025, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowing to 3.98 per cent, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

The growth rate is lower than the 4.23 per cent recorded in the second quarter of the year, but slightly higher than the 3.86 per cent posted in the corresponding period of 2024.

The NBS report showed that the economy recorded a real GDP value of N57.03 trillion in the quarter under review. In nominal terms, aggregate GDP rose to N113.59 trillion, compared to N96.16 trillion in the same quarter of 2024, representing a nominal growth of 18.12 per cent.

Sectoral performance remained mixed, even as the services sector continued to dominate economic activity. Services grew by 4.15 per cent in Q3 2025, though this was slower than the 4.97 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024. The sector accounted for 53.02 per cent of total GDP, slightly higher than its 52.93 per cent share in Q3 2024, maintaining its position as the largest contributor to Nigeria’s output.

Agriculture grew by 3.79 per cent in real terms, an improvement from the 2.55 per cent growth posted in the third quarter of 2024. The NBS noted that crop production remained the primary driver of agricultural activities, contributing 65.99 per cent to the sector’s total nominal output.

In nominal terms, agriculture expanded by 3.18 per cent year-on-year, although this represented a slowdown of 14.87 percentage points compared with the same period of 2024. The sector contributed 26.85 per cent to nominal GDP, lower than the 30.74 per cent recorded in Q3 2024 but higher than the 21.04 per cent reported in the previous quarter.

The Industry sector grew by 3.77 per cent in the review period, up from the 2.78 per cent recorded in the third quarter of the previous year. However, the mining and quarrying subsector displayed a diverging trend. In nominal terms, mining contracted sharply by 41.08 per cent, primarily driven by declines in crude petroleum and natural gas.

Despite this, some mining subsectors, such as metal ores (72.95 per cent) and quarrying and other minerals (45.70 per cent), posted significant nominal growth. Overall, the sector contributed 2.37 per cent to nominal GDP, far below the 4.76 per cent contribution reported in Q3 2024.

In real terms, the sector expanded by 7.02 per cent, higher than the 3.06 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2024 but lower than the 20.86 per cent achieved in the second quarter of 2025. The sector’s real contribution to GDP stood at 3.57 per cent, compared with 3.46 per cent in Q3 2024 and 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025.

Oil production remained a major driver of the industry component. Nigeria recorded an average daily crude oil output of 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the 1.47 mbpd posted in the same quarter of 2024 but slightly lower than the 1.68 mbpd recorded in the previous quarter.

The oil sector grew by 5.84 per cent in real terms, marginally above the 5.66 per cent growth recorded in Q3 2024. However, growth dropped significantly from 20.46% in Q2 2025. The sector contributed 3.44 per cent to real GDP, up from 3.38 per cent in Q3 2024 but lower than the 4.05 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2025.

The non-oil sector, which continues to anchor broad economic activity, expanded by 3.91 per cent in real terms. This was higher than the 3.79 per cent recorded in Q3 2024 and the 3.64 per cent growth posted in Q2 2025. Major drivers included Agriculture, Telecommunications, real estate, financial institutions, trade, construction and manufacturing. The non-oil segment accounted for 96.56 per cent of real GDP, slightly below the 96.62 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024 but higher than the 95.95 per cent reported in the previous quarter.

The manufacturing sector showed modest improvements on a real basis, expanding by 1.25 per cent year-on-year, slightly higher than its performance in Q3 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, the sector grew by 8.65 per cent. However, nominal growth slowed to 3.45 per cent, down significantly from 13.83 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024. Manufacturing contributed 8.06 per cent to nominal GDP, lower than the 9.21 per cent recorded a year earlier.

The statistics bureau noted that the overall performance of the economy in Q3 2025 reflected the combined influence of higher crude oil output, steady expansion in key non-oil industries, and the continued dominance of the services sector. While the slight slowdown in GDP growth signals ongoing structural challenges, the positive year-on-year trajectory across agriculture, non-oil industries and mining suggests a gradual recovery momentum.