Experts Predict Global Shipping Disruption Over US, Others Elections

Economic and shipping experts have expressed fears of uncertainty in global shipping business in 2024 as they expect the presidential elections in the United States of America and 69 other nations to influence global shipping and economic activities in the year.
This was one of submissions at a recent meeting organised by the Nigerian Chamber of Shipping (NCS), themed: “Strategic Analysis: 2024 Global Shipping Industry Economic Outlook and its Implications on African Regional Shipping”

At the conference, a PricewaterhouseCoopers Partner/ Director, Tax Reporting, Strategy & Country Operations, Kenneth Erikume, noted that over 50 per cent of the world’s population, about 4.3 billion people, will be involved in national elections in 2024, a move which is expected to have an unspecified influence on shipping and global economy.
While describing the United States elections as one of the most puzzling for economic trends in 2024, Erikume noted that the Russia-Ukraine war, Israeli-Hamas conflict as well as China/ US battle for technology and economic relevance could swing unpredictably following the US presidential polls.
Speaking on Nigeria’s economic trajectory, Erikume stated that the nation would have to surmount the challenge of balancing its ambitious infrastructure projects with revenue generation.

He, however, asserted that the current economic times in the country calls for efficient utilisation of funds, foreign exchange stability and good interest rates to support businesses.
Also speaking, a former Nigerian Minister of Interior and Chairman, Integrated Oil and Gas, Capt. Emmanuel Iheanacho, observed that given the tough economic times in the country, the federal government should engage ship owners on the best approach to utilise the Cabotage Vessel Finance Fund (CVFF).
Iheanacho described the removal of fuel subsidy as a development that would lead to lesser importation of petroleum products in 2024, although he hinted that some traces of subsidy are still prevalent in the petroleum import business.
His words: “With CVFF, there is over $700 million contributed by ship owners to the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA). But, the purpose of the fund was decided a long time ago, at a time the nation was wealthy. Today, we may have to look at the best use of CVFF to get the best returns on the money.”

Earlier, a paper was presented on behalf of Capt. Iheanacho by Dr. Edmund Chilaka, Centre for Multimodal Transport Studies, University of Lagos.
In Chilaka’s paper, he admonished Nigeria to prioritise the development of seafarers in a bid to fill the shortfall of over 170,000 globally, encouraging Maritime Academy of Nigeria (MAN) Oron to gainfully utilise its top-notch infrastructure and equipment to address the global shipping need.
Noting that few Nigerians are involved in global shipping of wet cargo and none in container shipping, he called for development of indigenous cargo-carrying capacity, even as he stressed the need to develop fishing and aquaculture.

He pointed out that in 2021, Nigeria’s total fish production was estimated at 1.123 million metric tonnes, composed of marine catches 36 per cent, inland waters catch 33 per cent and aquaculture 31 per cent, according to FAO (2021).
“Other products abound in our waters, of which research is continuing to explore the real abundance. A University of Lagos marine biologist informed me of research into the occurrence of sea cucumbers in our waters, of which a kilo costs $3,500. Nigerian species of jumbo prawns fetch $34 a pound, and a kilogram of fresh salmon can cost up to $30 on Amazon,” Chilaka said.
He encouraged the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy to empower Nigerians in the sector to acquire the trawlers and facilities they need, protect the natural endowment with adequate maritime domain security and awareness, and enforce protocols against illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing by poachers in the high sea.
In his welcome address, the president of Nigerian Chamber of Shipping, Aminu Umar, stated that in today’s interconnected world, the maritime industry plays a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape of nations and regions alike.

“The theme of our breakfast meeting, “Strategic Analysis: 2024 Global Shipping Industry Economic Outlook and Its Implications on African Regional Shipping,” underscores the importance of understanding and adapting to the dynamic forces that shape our industry.”
“As we delve into the analysis of the global shipping industry, it is imperative to recognise the multifaceted challenges and opportunities that lie ahead”
Umar, however, encouraged Nigerian ship owners to explore other sources of funding ship acquisition, listing AFREXIM Bank and African Development Bank as possible options.

Meanwhile, the executive secretary of Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC), Barr. Pius Akutah, described the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) as a call for export competitiveness within the region.
The NSC boss, who was represented by Adaora Nwonu, posited that Nigerian ports wouldn’t thrive in the regional export competition if manual processes and bureaucracy persists.
“At NSC, we have pushed for automation and most seaport terminal operators have attained over 90 per cent automation of their operations. Nevertheless, there are concerns about the port access roads, provision of other transport modes for cargo evacuation like railways and navigable waterways for barge operations.”

She added that under the President Bola Tinubu administration no one wants to be called out for non-performance as the President signed performance bonds with his Ministers and the Blue Economy Minister did the same with agencies.