Global Trade Grows in 2025 on 11% Manufacturing Surge, But Risks Loom – UNCTAD

Global trade climbed in 2025, fueled by an 11 per cent expansion in manufacturing, though volatile commodity prices led to patchy sector performance.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) detailed this in its April 2026 Global Trade Update, titled “Global Trade Growth Continues, but Fragility Rises.” Industrial goods, especially machinery, spearheaded the rise, while commodities showed mixed results—gains in some areas clashing with energy trade weakness.
Key highlights from the UNCTAD report showed that manufacturing grew by 11 per cent, driven by electrical and non-electrical machinery.
Agricultural trade rose, boosted by cereals, animal products, coffee, tea, and spices; elevated coffee prices helped, though late-year slowdowns hit.
Natural resources dipped overall due to soft energy prices, offset somewhat by precious metals in base metals trade.
Commodity volatility heavily influenced patterns.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, global trade grew about two per cent, with goods up 1.7 per cent and services nearly three per cent. UNCTAD forecasts a sharp slowdown in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, inflation, and higher trade costs—leaving few sectors poised for gains.
“Manufacturing recorded a strong year, expanding by around 11 per cent, driven by robust growth in machinery, including both electrical and non-electrical segments,” UNCTAD stated.
Agricultural trade also grew, supported by higher activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.
Rising global coffee prices contributed significantly to agricultural trade gains, although momentum slowed toward the end of the year.
Trade in natural resources declined overall, weighed down by weaker energy prices, though precious metals helped support segments within the base metals trade.
UNCTAD said commodity price volatility played a key role in shaping global trade patterns during the period.
While global trade remained broadly positive, Nigeria’s trade performance showed contrasting trends, particularly in manufactured exports and oil revenues.

Nigeria’s manufactured goods exports fell to N423.43 billion in Q4 2025.
This represents a 14.32 per cent year-on-year decline and a 56.73 per cent drop from the previous quarter.
Total merchandise trade stood at N36.21 trillion in Q4 2025, down from N39.77 trillion in Q3 2025.
The country recorded a trade surplus of N1.71 trillion, significantly lower than the N6.691 trillion surplus in the previous quarter.
The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the decline largely to reduced export volumes, particularly in the oil sector.

Crude oil remains Nigeria’s dominant export but continues to face global price volatility.
Weak manufacturing capacity, high production costs and foreign exchange constraints continue to limit export competitiveness.
Non-oil sectors such as agriculture and services have provided some support but are not yet strong enough to offset oil-related declines.