The die is cast in Nigeria where the irrevocable decisions on the next chief executives who would pilot the affairs of the states of the federation will be made today.
Voters in 28 states of the federation will be electing new governors, while the next members of state Houses of Assembly in all the 36 states will also be decided.
In at least 11 of the 28 states where governorship elections are holding, the sitting governors are seeking a second term.
The states where governors are seeking re-election include Lagos, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Nasarawa, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun.
And in no fewer than 12 states, only one political party has either governed them or won elections, though sitting governors have changed political parties only for voters to return the parties they left back to power.
In Lagos, only the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which later changed names and subsequently merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC), has won governorship elections since 1999.
LEADERSHIP Weekend checks revealed that the state may however be facing its stiffest competition in 2023, with the Labour Party mobilising to end president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ‘24-year reign in the state.
If the standard of measurement is the last presidential election in Lagos and again, if all known variables are kept constant, the election is largely going to be a contest between the incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, and the governorship candidate of the Labour Party (LP) , Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour.
Despite its strong footholds In Lagos, some political pundits believe that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its governorship candidate, Olajide Adediran, may not have impressive outing in the polls, given the recent massive defection of many of its chieftains to the APC, which included the former governorship candidate of the PDP in Lagos State, Ade Dosunmu and the campaign director general in the state, Seye Dairo, who has dumped the party for the APC few hours to the governorship election.
Observers who spoke at separate interviews believe that the incumbent governor is unstoppable given his support base and humongous power of incumbency both at the state and federal level.
The chief press secretary to the Lagos State governor, Mr. Gboyega Akosile weighed the chances of the candidates in the election, saying the slim margin win of the Labour Party in the state in the last presidential election does not constitute any threat to the re-election bid of the governor who he said is running on experience and track record.
According to him, the Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu project has become a Lagos Project, adding that prominent Lagosians have come together to agree to ensure that the nation’s commercial nerve centre in the country is not given to incompetent people to govern.
But Mathew Akilo, a political analyst, said the Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes –Vivour belongs to the #EndSARS generation of the youths who are determined to take over the mantle of leadership from the older generation.
He said Rhodes-Vivour is part of the #EndSARS generation, saying he actually took part in the protest.
Akilo said, “You can see he is the youngest contender for the seat of the governor, many of the people backing him are up-coming musicians, skit makers, Internet influencers, a part-Nollywood artistes , among others and they are leaving no stone unturned in ensuring that they win the election.
“The Nigerian youths showed it in the last election; they are bent on flexing their numerical strength and political muscles. They seem to have woken up from their political slumber and have so far refused to go back to sleep. Let us see how it goes, how their efforts will pay off in the polls.”
Similarly, the dominance of the PDP in states like Enugu, Abia, Delta and even states like Ebonyi and Cross River where the governors have decamped to the APC is now being threatened by the Labour Party.
Although PDP has dominated the politics of Enugu State since 1999, there are strong indications that the results of the last presidential election held in the state may affect the outcome of the gubernatorial and Houses of Assembly elections in favour of the Labour Party.
Labour Party won seven out of the eight House of Representatives positions during the February 25th election, while the PDP won one seat,
Similarly Labour Party won the senatorial position of Enugu North after defeating the incumbent governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, while the PDP managed to win Enugu West senatorial district.
Also Peter Obi of the Labour Party won the presidential election by a wide margin as other parties failed to get up to 25 percent in the last election.
It is also believed in many quarters that the Obidients tsunami that almost forced the PDP into extinction in the National Assembly may likely repeat itself during the gubernatorial and state assembly elections in Enugu State.
In Yobe, Borno and Zamfara States, governorship elections have always been won by one party, the ANPP/APC, though a one-time governor of Zamfara in 2011 decamped and contested under PDP but lost his re-election bid.
The PDP also has to contend with widespread assumption that Yobe State is traditionally APC. Since 1999 with the return of democratic rule, the APC has remained the ruling party both at the state and the local government levels.
However, over the course of 24 years, the APC has become so firmly established that repeated PDP attempts to strip it of control had failed. The APC is certain to continue to trumpet this record in the course of its electioneering campaigns. If psychology is any measure at all, this might become a key factor in today’s governorship election.
Although PDP won the presidential election in the state, political observers in the state believe that the greatest challenge that the PDP will face in Yobe State lies in what many believe is Buni’s record of achievements as governor.
Also in Zamfara, the Supreme Court in 2019 disqualified all candidates of the APC ensuring it was a no contest election for the PDP.
Also, the voting pattern in Delta, Bauchi and Abia States may change in today’s governorship polls, as the deputy Senate president, Omo-Agege; a former Chief of Air Staff, Sadique Abubakar, and a former GMD of Diamond Bank, Alex Otti, are all betting big that they can upset the country’s political formation in the respective states and win the governorship races.
Despite that eight governorship candidates and the leadership of their political parties in Delta State have stepped down for the governorship candidate of PDP, Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori, the APC and its gubernatorial candidate, Senator Omo-Agege, still appear poised to win the election.
Last week, Omo-Ageged got massive support from civil servants and pensioners when he promised to pay them 13th month salary and settle all outstanding arrears of pensioners if elected governor of the state.
Omo Agege urged them to stand for truth and vote for APC, making Delta the state to be reckoned with.
His chances became brighter when the rumour that he is not a Christian was countered by the Catholic Church.
In Bauchi State, a public affairs analyst, Dr Hamid Adamu Muhammad, said the pedigree of the APC governorship candidate, Air Marshal Sadique Baba Abubakar (rtd), places him on the front burner in the race.
The former Chief of Air Staff is in the race to become Bauchi governor in today’s poll, challenging the re-election bid of incumbent governor, Senator Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed of PDP.
He said although Sadique is not popular as a person among the electorate in Bauchi, his candidacy has brought him to limelight.
Dr Hamid explained that the natural human psychic urge for change plays a role in making the candidacy of the former Air chief, adding that “it is natural that people want change to an existing reality regardless of whether it is anomaly.”
He further explained that considering the money-factor in Nigerian politics, Sadique has an edge, arguing that in the Bauchi opposition camp, he is the most fitting.
“There are disgruntled political gladiators who are bent to have someone they can push to challenge the current governor so that if he succeeds, they will all rally around him to make a living. They found Sadique to be the right candidate. Most of them survive from playing political cards and they loss power years ago. This makes them hungrier to oust PDP.
“Also the fact that Shehu Aliyu Musa Barden Gabas, the running mate of Air Marshal, is a grassroots politician who hails from the southern part of Bauchi State will play a significant role in the victory of APC. He has presence in almost all rural communities of the zone, thus placing him close to the hearts of many people,” he said.
In Abia State, Alex Otti, a former bank chief came to political lime light in 2014 when he joined the race for the governorship ticket of the PDP.
Edged out by Okezie Ikpeazu, who went ahead to win the governorship election in 2015, he defected to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and secured its ticket.
His presence in APGA brought huge fortune for the party in the election that at the end it won 11 seats in the state House of Assembly, one at the House of Representatives, and missed the governorship only by a whisker.
Even as late as Thursday night while being interviewed on a radio programme in Umuahia, the state capital, Otti still believes he won the election, but was “robbed of victory”.
Otti’s chances are bright. He is basking on the clamour for change in the state due to 24 years of poor leadership and battered economy.
He would also rely on the LP wave, even though it is gradually breaking, which recorded one Senate seat out of the three and six out of eight in the House of Representatives on February 25.
Also in Adamawa, a sitting Senator, Hajiya Aisha Dahiru (Binani), is seeking to make history by becoming the country’s first female elected governor.
The emergence of Tinubu as president-elect under the platform of APC has brightened the chances of the party’s governorship candidate in Adamawa, as party faithful are banking on the bandwagon effect with the hope that voters may vote to align the state with the government at the centre.
It is expected that the voters would tilt their votes in favour of the APC in the governorship poll, especially with the recent viral video sent to the people of Adamawa by President Muhammad Buhari, urging them to vote for Binani.
Mohammed Abdullahi, APC’s Publicity Secretary in the state, said Binani’s empowerment project would no doubt woo the women folk who are strongly behind her due to her empowerment programme.
Another winning factor for the APC is the recent endorsement of Binani by Labour Party (LP) candidate, Umar Mustapha, and that of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Sa’ad Tahir, directing their supporters across the 21 local government areas to vote for her.
Likewise, Senator Ishaka Abbo, representing Northern senatorial district has vowed to deliver the zone for Binani, and if this works out well tomorrow, APC may have the day in the state.
However, Governor Ahmad Fintiri’s power of incumbency and urban renewal work across 21 local government areas may sway the electorate to reelect him for a second time.
Meanwhile, 24 women will contest today’s governorship elections in 28 states.
Although the 18 political parties produced candidates for the elections, only two women won the tickets of the three major parties, APC, PDP and the Labour Party.
Prominent among the female candidates running for governor is Aishatu Dahiru, who is flying the flag of the APC in Adamawa State.
Other candidates are Gladys Johnson-Ogbuneke of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Lancaster Okoro of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) both in Abia State.
There are also two women in Akwa-Ibom State namely, Ekanem Abasiekeme of the Action Alliance Party (AAP) and Udoh Emem Monday of the SDP.
Benue State also has two women namely, Roseline Chenge of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) and Aondona Dabo-Adzuana of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
Abubakar Fatima is the candidate of ADP in Borno State. ADP also chose Ibiang Marikana Stanley as its candidate in Cross River State.
In Delta State, two women are also on the governorship election ballot. Accord party nominated Onokiti Helen Agboola, while Cosmas Annabel is contesting as the candidate of All People’s Party (APP).
In Ebonyi State, Chinenye Igwe is contesting under the platform of APM, while in Enugu, Ogochukwu Nweze is of the SDP.
The candidate of Action Alliance (AA) in Jigawa State is Umar Binta Yahaya,
Two women are also in the race in Kano State namely, Yakubu Furera Ahmad of the Boot Party (BP), and Mahmud Aisha of the National Rescue Movement (NRM).
In Kwara State, Motunrayo Jaiyeola is the flag bearer of APM.
Lagos State also has two female candidates. APM is presenting Funmilayo Kupoliyi and Roseline Adeyemi of the All People’s Party (APP).
In Nasarawa State, ADP is being represented by Patricia Tsakpa, while
Khadijah Abdullahi-Iya is the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate for Niger State.
Aduragbemi Euba is the candidate of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) in Oyo State while Beatrice Itubo is the Labour Party (LP) candidate for Rivers State. In Zamfara, the flag of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) will be flown by Hadiza Usman.
