A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Haruna Salihu has said that the chances of the candidate of the ruling APC, Ahmed Usman Ododo emerging victorious in the upcoming election in Kogi state is high.
Salihu stated this following the outcome of a pre-election opinion poll which predicted that the APC candidate will win the Kogi State governorship election slated for November 11, 2023.
According to Salihu, the poll result, which was released by Perms Media, showed Ododo has a better chance of winning the election as respondents on the survey conducted by the media outfit between August 31 and September 14 indicated.
The poll, however, showed that overall, 90% of respondents see a likely two or three horse race between the APC, PDP and SDP while the other 15 parties have a weaker chance of victory.
The two-week long survey report said it randomly chose people who represented their zones and that through online transactions, telephone interviews and physical encounters to arrive at its conclusion.
The report by the pollster said, “The Demography of respondents spread across the three senatorial districts of the state, translating to an unbiased and even representation.
“lt was a painstakingly controlled sampling with a variety of people from different walks of life covering the districts and down to communities and settlements in the hinterland.
“They include civil servants, industrialists, farmers, businessmen and women as well as students and artisans.”
The report said beside the fair distribution of the respondents, questionnaires were streamlined in concise, clear, and well-phrased for quicker understanding of issues as questions depict neutrality, fairness, and transparency.
However, out of the 18 contesting candidates, the survey only placed attention on the candidates of the leading political parties in the state.
It was zeroed down to the candidates of the APC, Ahmed Usman Ododo; PDP, Dino Melaye; SDP, Muritala Yakubu Ajaka; Labour Party, Adejoh Okeme and Leke Abejide of the ADC.
The report said in the equitable distribution of the survey conducted online, for example, a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 points was recorded while that of registered voters was 2.3.
It said those contacted on telephone with live interviewers produced 2.1 in sampling error just as 1.9 points was recorded for party-leaning voters to suggest that respondents have already made up their minds on the candidate of their choice.
Analysis of the results further showed, among the full sample, that a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among registered voters, the margin of sampling error is 3.6 points, and it is 6.0 for democratic and democratic-leaning voters.
“Of Kogi’s total polling units of 3,508, the east senatorial district has 1,714; the West, 892 and Central, 902. The distribution of the Local Government Areas of the state ordinarily places the East ahead of others on ratio 9:7:5 for East, West and Central.
“The state’s 239 wards also follow this pattern, but the opinion poll indicates that the voters in the districts are not entirely swayed by their ethnic affinities.
“Overall, 90% of respondents see a likely two or three racehorse between the APC, PDP and SDP while the remaining 15 other parties contesting lack any chance.
“Even though the PDP seems to be having a stiff opposition in the west, voters see that as only counting within that region but feel that the choice of the party’s deputy governorship candidate may make a marginal impact in his favour outside the region.”
The report however said the difference will only be enough to give the party an edge over its closest rival in the western district but not having any impact on the total outcome of the election result.
Conclusively, the poll which was conducted with extensive coverage of the state had a random sample of 45,000 respondents from virtually almost each of the polling units of Kogi State.
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