Mobile Subscriptions Drop As Operators Disconnect 64.3m Unverified Lines

The recent verification exercise for National Identification Numbers (NINs) linked to mobile SIMs has caused a substantial reduction in the subscriber database of Nigeria’s mobile network operators.
MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9mobile collectively deactivated 64.3 million lines due to unverified NINs, according to data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on Monday.

Globacom and 9mobile experienced the largest impacts, with both operators seeing significant losses by the close of the verification exercise on September 14.

Globacom’s active subscriptions dropped drastically from 62.1 million in March to 19.1 million by September, resulting in a net loss of 43 million subscriptions. Meanwhile, 9mobile, which has struggled with declining customers in recent years, ended September with just 3.6 million active subscriptions, a sharp decline from 11.6 million in March, losing around eight million lines to the verification process.
By the end of September, the four mobile network operators reported a combined total of 154.6 million active subscriptions, down from 219 million recorded in March 2023.

Despite this sweeping reduction, MTN Nigeria retained its leading position in the market with 78 million active subscriptions as of September, although the verification exercise reduced its database from 81.7 million in March, marking a loss of 3.7 million subscriptions.

Airtel Nigeria, the second-largest operator, closed September with 53.7 million active subscriptions, down from 63.3 million in March, losing 9.6 million subscriptions over six months.

While MTN and Airtel were less impacted compared to Globacom and 9mobile, this reduction is expected to influence their Q3 2024 revenue, anticipated soon.

Both companies had earlier indicated potential revenue implications from the NIN verification process.
In its financial report for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, Airtel Africa, the parent company of Airtel Nigeria, estimated potential monthly revenue losses of up to $4 million due to unverified NINs. As of that time, Airtel reported 4.9 million unverified customer NINs.

Similarly, MTN Nigeria previously disclosed that as of February 28, 2024, it had disconnected 4.2 million lines unlinked to NINs, although the company noted the impact was minimal, as these subscribers were classified as “low-value.

Earlier in October, NCC executive vice chairman Dr. Aminu Maida reiterated the importance of the NIN-SIM linkage, while confirming that all active mobile lines in Nigeria are now linked to verified NINs, marking the completion of the federal government’s 2020 mandate to link every mobile number to a NIN.
Speaking at the 2024 Annual Corporate Governance Conference in Lagos, Maida emphasised the importance of this achievement for national security.

“Today, there is no phone number that we cannot associate with a verified NIN. Not just a number, but a number that has been verified,” Maida stated. “If a phone number is involved in fraud or any crime, we can now confidently identify the user linked to that phone number based on the NIN.”