NAF 931 Was A Forgiving ‘Bird’

I am afraid of flying, yet I never get tired of hearing pilots talk about it. I have some pilot friends, and whenever they describe what it is like to fly these huge birds, I listen like a child at bedtime. Think about it: a machine weighing many tonnes, cruising more than 30,000 feet above the ground, held up by aerodynamics. It is astonishing, and most of the time it is safe. When it goes wrong, the price is usually costly. Air travel is pleasurable. But when things go wrong, it brings so much grief, unless the aircraft chooses to be forgiving, in the sense that no life is lost.

The ATR 42-500MP

NAF 931 crashed on 5 October 2026. It was an ATR 42-500MP, the maritime patrol version of the ATR 42, a twin-turboprop built by Avions de Transport Régional (ATR) in Blagnac, France. The ATR 42 was designed as an economical, high-wing, short-haul regional airliner. It first flew in 1984 and was certified in 1985, and the improved -500 series followed in the mid-1990s with new engines and six-bladed propellers. The military version, marketed as the ATR 42MP Surveyor, came later, built for patrol, surveillance and transport duties. NAF 931 was one of them.

Two of them, NAF 930 and NAF 931, were delivered to the Nigerian Air Force in 2009 and 2010, while the rest went to Italian security agencies. As far as available information shows, none of this variant had been involved in an accident until NAF 931 went down in the swamps of Igbokoda, in Ondo State. It is this stellar track record that explains why the mishap raised so much curiosity, and why public commentary has been so intense.

A forgiving bird

In one of my numerous interactions with a pilot friend who has piloted NAF 931 in times past, he described the aircraft as a forgiving bird because its design gives pilots extra leeway and time to react when handling errors, environmental challenges, or unexpected situations occur due to its high-wing stability, low stall speed, gentle handling, high power-to-weight ratio, and rugged landing gear.

This was how he explained it: Picture a patient driving instructor who lets you make a small mistake, then gives you just enough time to put it right before an accident occurs. According to him, that was the attribute of NAF 931. Its wings sit high on the fuselage, so the body hangs beneath them like a pendulum, and when a gust rocks the aircraft, it swings itself back towards level. If the speed drops too low, it doesn’t wait until the last moment to complain. Lights, sounds and a trembling control column warn the crew early enough to act. If an approach goes wrong, or the wind turns nasty near the runway, the engines answer quickly and the pilot can power up and go around. And if a landing comes in hard, or a correction comes late, its sturdy undercarriage takes the knock that might break a more delicate aircraft. That is why my friend calls it a forgiving bird.

What happened to NAF 931?

What happened to NAF 931? I have read several commentaries around as usual. But in my opinion, what brought NAF 931 down will remain unknown until the engines and black box are found. The pilot and co-pilot were among the best in the Air Force fleet. This much was confirmed by the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke. Rumours about the state of the aircraft are also circulating, as they always do after a loss like this. It is fair for questions to be asked, including about maintenance, which has long been a concern in our country. But I will neither accept nor dismiss any theory about what happened to NAF 931 until the report of the investigation is made public.

Perhaps, on that fateful flight, NAF 931 chose to be unforgiving. Military sources credit it with changing the balance in the fight against militancy and piracy in the Niger Delta. For years, militants, pipeline vandals, oil thieves, illegal bunkerers, pirates and illegal refiners had worked in places the government could not see. The aircraft gave the government eyes. From the air, it found those hidden camps and refining sites and passed their locations to the ground forces and strike aircraft, who then destroyed them.

Grief and questions

I share in the grief of the relatives of the victims. It remains a loss too many. May the souls of the departed rest in peace (Amen). When the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke visited the crash site, he promised a comprehensive investigation into the unfortunate incident. Even though he put on a brave face, he looked to me like a man who wanted to ask the reporters’ questions himself, rather than answer them. He was devastated, like many Nigerians who want to know what went wrong with NAF 931.

I am aware that the Air Force instituted a Group Personal Accident Insurance Policy for its personnel in January 2024, covering disability or death during military operations or any other form of accident. But there is little, if any, policy that institutionalises platforms that go down in the line of duty. Platforms like NAF 466, NAF 201 and NAF 203 are remembered, if at all, only by their serial numbers.

As investigations continue, there is a broader institutional lesson for our defence authorities. The Air Force should consider establishing a formal policy to immortalise platforms like NAF 931 that went down in the line of duty. This could take the form of erecting static models at key air bases, accompanied by curated operational archives detailing their service years, theatres of deployment and combat breakthroughs.

Counting is not measuring

I have read a couple of commentaries on air accidents involving NAF platforms. Is the Nigerian Air Force really losing aircraft at an alarming rate? The claim is repeated far more often than it is measured. It creates a distorted picture because it ignores the number of sorties NAF platforms fly around the country every day, across several theatres of operations. This is why public commentary around it must be circumspect. Aircraft are meant to fly, and flying carries inherent risk.

Aviation safety is judged by rates, such as serious accidents per 100,000 flying hours, not by headlines. Even the United States Air Force, regarded as one of the safest in the world, once recorded 35 serious mishaps and lost 19 manned aircraft in a single year. A bare count means little without the hours flown. This is not to make a case for the Nigerian Air Force; rather, it is a call for circumspection until the facts are established.

NAF 931 and the 25 souls

NAF 931 (2010–2026) was a forgiving bird. Its tour of duty was remarkable. It went down in the swamps of Igbokoda with 25 souls. When a military asset is lost, it is a national loss. When lives are lost with it, it becomes a national tragedy. May the 25 souls rest in peace. NAF 931 forgave many a mistake in its time, and it will be remembered for that. Adieu, NAF 931, the forgiving bird.

– Ocheja holds dual PhDs: Military History from the Nigerian Defence Academy, and Leadership and Public Policy from the University of Abuja. He specialises in the security-development nexus in Nigeria and the Sahel.