Need For Accurate Census

The National Population Commission (NPC) has concluded plans to conduct the 2023 census in May, this year. Nigeria has not conducted a census in almost 17 years. What this means is that we have just been experimenting with national planning without any concrete data.

The last census conducted in Nigeria was in 2006, which put the nation’s population at 140,003,542 people. 17 years later,  Nigeria’s population is estimated to be about  200 million. But even this may not be accurate in line with all figures not backed by empirical exercise.

Nigeria has a long history of efforts aimed at counting the citizens spanning over a century. Because it is often tainted by politics, the credibility of such efforts remains circumspect at best.

The first census was conducted in 1866 and this was followed by head counts of 1871, 1881, 1891 and 1901.

However, all these earlier census were restricted to Lagos colony and its environs. The principle of simultaneity was not complied with as the census enumeration was staggered. The 1973 census conducted between November 25 and December 2 was not published on the ground of deliberate falsification of the census figures for political and /or ethnic advantages.

The 1991 census was conducted under Decree 23 of 1989 which set up the National population commission. It was conducted all over the country from November 27 to December 2, 1991.

This was the most scientific and most acceptable until 2006 population and Housing census. Several stages were involved in the project. For the first time, the use of GPS and Satellite Imagery to carve out Geo-referenced EAs was adopted. Also machine readable forms (OMR/CR/ICR) were used to record information from respondents.

Over the years, the Nigerian government has been grappling with inaccurate data with regard to national budget and planning as well as the implementation of policies based on population estimates that are likely to be wrong. For years, the country used 150 million in her estimates. And then with time, it was moved up to 200 million people.

Although, this newspaper had earlier taken a position that the 2023 population census be postponed to allow enough time for proper planning, we pledge our support to an accurate population that will enhance effective planning and budgeting for national development. We call on the NPC to eschew those factors such as ethnicity and religion in the conduct of the 2023 census. Ethnicity and religion have impacted on the  nation’s life negatively, resulting in discrimination, corruption and politics of federal character.

We also expect the NPC to work closely with religious and traditional leaders to eradicate those beliefs that may impinge on an accurate census. For instance, in some cultures in Nigeria, it is considered as  abomination to count people while they are still alive. According to these beliefs, anybody who gets counted exposes themselves to suffering from all sorts of ill fortunes which can range from ailments to even death.

Another example is the belief among some Northern communities that do not allow their women to be counted. The reason may be religious or cultural, but it exists. And it is probably why the northern census figure is always contested by other ethnic groups.

The fact that a significant portion of the population lives in remote areas is another issue. It is difficult for census workers to reach many rural communities, especially those areas where there are no facilities to record how many they are; there are no significant records to document births and deaths.  It will, therefore, be difficult to verify the information on census forms.

It is also hoped that the NPC will do better this time, to avoid some of the errors of the 2006 population census, where the demography was said to have been deliberately falsified thus the population was exaggerated in the published results. Apart from the case of deliberate falsification, the authorities were also corrupt.

The need for an accurate census at this point, therefore, can never be overemphasised. And because migration and immigration remain central to a nation’s population policy, Nigeria needs a population census that will give the estimates of migrants and immigrants; a database that provides clear and precise estimates of the distribution and characteristics of its immigrants and expatriates.

We recognise the importance of an accurate population census to national development. We, therefore, call on the NPC to do a thorough job. The Commission has no excuse to fail Nigerians. It is good that the NPC has promised to adopt cutting edge technology for the Housing and Population Census in the 2023 exercise.But they should go beyond words and promises. An exercise that costs Nigerian taxpayers N532.7 billion cannot afford to fail.