Nigeria: Terror, Bandit Attacks Spike Before Every Election Since 2015, Report Warns

An intelligence and data analytics firm, CellHub, has raised concerns over what it described as a recurring surge in terrorism and banditry ahead of every presidential election in Nigeria since 2015, urging authorities to launch a public investigation before the 2027 general election.

The firm made the call on Sunday in Abuja while unveiling a consolidated election security dataset, arguing that the pattern has repeated across four consecutive election cycles despite changes in governing parties and evolving security threats.

According to CellHub, the consistency of the trend suggests it is a structural feature of Nigeria’s electoral cycle rather than a coincidence, warning that it now constitutes the most predictable security threat to the 2027 presidential election.

The organisation called on the National Assembly, the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to institute a public inquiry into the recurring escalation of violence before elections.

Its report showed that ahead of the March 2015 presidential election, Boko Haram was at the height of its territorial control, occupying about 20,000 square kilometres. It said 22,544 conflict-related deaths were recorded in 2014, with more than 3,000 fatalities in January 2015 alone, leading to the six-week postponement of the election on security grounds.

For the 2019 election cycle, CellHub said the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) overran several military positions in Borno State, while civilian deaths in Zamfara State increased from 52 in 2017 to 288 in 2018 and 262 within the first 100 days of 2019. Fatalities across the North-West doubled year-on-year, prompting a one-week postponement of the election.

The report also highlighted the security situation preceding the February 2023 election, describing it as a period of commercial-scale kidnapping. It recorded 3,620 abductions in the year ending June 2023, with ransom demands estimated at N5.09 billion. It further documented between 50 and 134 attacks on INEC facilities and recalled that terror alerts were issued for Abuja four months before the polls.

Assessing the current electoral cycle, CellHub said terrorism-related fatalities increased by 46 per cent and incidents by 43 per cent in 2025, describing it as the largest absolute increase recorded by any country during the year.

The report put violent deaths at 12,954 in 2024, 12,162 in 2025 and 5,272 in the first five months of 2026, adding that mass school abductions have resurfaced at levels not witnessed since 2014.

“Four out of four. Random variation does not produce that result,” the report stated.

CellHub also cited previous studies and reports linking election periods with the financing of armed groups. It referenced documentation by Human Rights Watch showing how political financiers armed and funded gangs during elections, creating criminal networks that persisted long after the polls.

The report further cited research suggesting a relationship between election-related violence and states’ discretionary revenue, while noting that the militancy that later evolved into the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) partly originated from groups armed during the 2003 elections.

However, the firm stopped short of alleging that the same pattern directly explains the rise in terrorism and banditry, noting that no public institution has carried out a comprehensive investigation into the correlation.

“Four consecutive cycles of correlation is sufficient grounds to compel that investigation, and the failure to conduct one is now itself a national security decision,” the report stated.

On terrorism financing, CellHub pointed to publicly available disclosures, including the identification by the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) of 96 suspected terrorism financiers linked to 424 associates, 123 companies and 33 bureau de change operators between 2020 and 2021.

It also recalled the federal government’s announcement of 45 terrorism financing arrests in February 2022, the designation of six Nigerians by the United Arab Emirates as Boko Haram financiers in September 2021, and the Nigeria Sanctions Committee’s listing in April 2026 of 48 individuals and 12 entities linked to Boko Haram, ISWAP, Ansaru and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

“Nigeria does not have an intelligence problem,” the report concluded. “Every list is published. Almost none of it reaches a courtroom.”