Nigeria’s Diesel Price Rises 82.7%, Highest Worldwide—UNCTAD

Nigeria recorded the world’s highest diesel price increase between February and August 2026, with pump prices rising by 82.7 per cent, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The finding is contained in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development, released on Friday, October 9, 2026. The comparison used fuel-price data as of August 31, 2026.

Nigeria’s diesel increase was followed by Lebanon at 73.6 per cent, Peru at 66.7 per cent and Guatemala at 66.3 per cent. Petrol prices in Nigeria rose by 48.1 per cent over the same period, the fourth-highest increase among countries and territories covered by the report.

Myanmar recorded the highest petrol-price increase at 50.7 per cent, ahead of the United Arab Emirates at 49.8 per cent and Malaysia at 48.4 per cent.

UNCTAD said the energy shock was global but its effects were uneven, with developing countries—especially in Asia and Africa—recording the sharpest domestic fuel-price increases. It warned that higher energy costs reduce households’ real incomes and constrain consumption.

The report linked the surge to damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest monthly loss of global energy supply on record. Brent crude rose from about $70 to more than $110 per barrel after the conflict began, and UNCTAD expects prices to remain more than $30 per barrel above pre-conflict levels through the end of 2026.

UNCTAD identified Nigeria, Angola, Guyana and Kazakhstan as oil and gas exporters positioned to benefit from higher global energy prices. For Nigeria, stronger crude prices could lift export earnings.

However, the report cautioned that the benefit could be partly offset where domestic refining capacity is insufficient, because higher refined-product prices raise the cost of imported fuel. Although Nigeria’s refining capacity has expanded, continued petrol imports leave domestic prices exposed to international movements.

Domestic data cited in the report suggest some easing of import dependence: Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 50 million litres of petrol daily to the local market in the first half of 2026, while average daily petrol imports fell by 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres in August, from 19.7 million litres in July. Nigeria’s petrol import bill also fell by 96.15 per cent to N87.40 billion in the first quarter of 2026, from N2.27 trillion a year earlier.

Despite the improvement, import licences remain part of the market. In September, a Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue issuing import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa, subject to statutory and regulatory requirements.

UNCTAD also pointed to electric mobility as a longer-term buffer against fuel-price shocks, noting that wider adoption of electric motorbikes and buses could reduce dependence on petrol and diesel while strengthening energy security.