Norrenberger Equity Model Returns 82% In 2025, Outperforms NGX

Norrenberger’s Equity Portfolio Model posted an 82 per cent return in 2025, outperforming the Nigerian equity market for the second consecutive year, according to data released by the firm.

The model’s return exceeded the NGX All Share Index, which gained 52 per cent, and the NGX 30 Index, which returned 50 per cent. The firm said the result represents a “30 percentage point and 33 percentage point outperformance over the NGX All Share Index and the NGX 30 Index, respectively”.

Norrenberger said the outcome followed its 2024 performance, when the Equity Portfolio Model returned 48 per cent, compared with the NGX All Share Index’s 38 per cent gain. The firm noted that “the back-to-back outperformance highlights the model’s consistency and reinforces its effectiveness across varying market conditions.”

The portfolio comprised 10 stocks across telecommunications, consumer goods, banking, energy, and insurance. According to Norrenberger, “sector selection was informed by our macroeconomic outlook for 2025, particularly expectations around earnings recovery following forex-induced losses in consumer goods and telecommunications companies after the naira devaluation.

“MTN Nigeria, which had a portfolio weight of 15 per cent, recorded a 156 per cent return and was identified as the largest contributor to overall performance. The firm stated that “MTN Nigeria, the portfolio’s largest holding, was the primary driver of performance.

“Dangote Sugar and BUA Cement returned 85 per cent and 92 per cent, respectively. Norrenberger said the stocks “benefited from pricing power and improving operating leverage, reinforcing exposure to real sector growth.

“In the banking sector, Zenith Bank posted a 36 per cent return while Stanbic IBTC returned 74 per cent. According to the firm, these holdings were “underpinned by resilient earnings and strong market positioning.”

Looking ahead, the firm said that “for 2026, the Norrenberger Equity Portfolio Model has been restructured into four distinct portfolios, designed to offer clients a broader range of choices aligned with varying risk appetites and investment objectives”. It added that a Sustainability Index tracking companies with environmental, social and governance credentials would be launched, alongside portfolios focused on dividend-paying stocks, defensive equities and growth stocks.

On the market outlook, Norrenberger said, “equity returns in 2026 are expected to be more selective and earnings driven rather than broad-based”. The firm added that “valuation discipline and rigorous fundamental analysis will be critical to generating alpha”, noting that it remains “constructive on equities as a long-term wealth creation asset class” despite expectations of short-term volatility.