Private Sector Growth Slips As PMI Contracts To 49.4

Nigeria’s private sector activity slipped marginally into contraction in April 2026, as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) settling at 49.4 points, falling below the 50-point threshold for the first time in 16 months.

This is as the effects of the ongoing war in the middle east which has weighed on global supply chains and investor sentiment, continue to bite harder into economies across the globe, including Nigeria.

The latest PMI reading as released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) signals a mild moderation in economic conditions after a prolonged expansionary streak, with data showing that 19 of the 36 subsectors surveyed recorded declines, while only one remained unchanged.

A sectoral breakdown indicated that the downturn was largely driven by weaknesses in the industry and services segments. The Industry PMI stood at 49.5 points, reflecting a marginal contraction as eight of the 17 subsectors recorded declines. Although production posted a slight expansion at 50.2 points, weakening new orders and employment, at 49.5 and 48.7 points respectively, weighed on overall performance. Raw materials inventory also contracted sharply to 46.8 points.

Similarly, the Services sector recorded its first contraction in 14 months, with its index declining to 48.8 points. Key indicators including business activity, new orders, employment and inventories all fell below the 50-point mark, underscoring reduced demand conditions. Ten of the 14 subsectors posted declines, with Transportation and Warehousing recording the steepest contraction, while Educational Services led the limited expansion.

In contrast, the Agriculture sector remained resilient, sustaining its growth trajectory for the 21st consecutive month. The sector’s PMI stood at 50.2 points, supported by expansion in three of the five subsectors, with Forestry posting the strongest growth. Employment and general farming activities also remained in expansionary territory at 52.1 and 50.5 points respectively.
Output, new orders and employment indices settled at 49.7, 48.4 and 49.6 points respectively, all indicating mild contraction. The stock of raw materials index also declined to 48.7 points, reflecting cautious inventory accumulation by firms.
However, supplier delivery performance remained relatively strong, with the index at 50.9 points, suggesting faster response times despite prevailing pressures.