Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. Beset by economic and security challenges, the nation must urgently reimagine its priorities to extricate itself from an ever-deepening crisis.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has committed itself to an ambitious reform agenda under the banner of the “Renewed Hope Agenda,” a bold attempt to tackle the myriad issues plaguing the nation. Yet, good intentions alone will not suffice.
At no time in Nigeria’s history has the nation needed urgent reforms more than now. The current realities facing the country are so dire that citizens have been overwhelmed by seemingly unending economic difficulties.
The economic indicators paint a grim picture: unemployment is at an all-time high, the poverty rate continues to rise, and according to the World Bank, approximately 14 million more Nigerians have been plunged into poverty in the last 18 months of the current government.
This follows the troubling designation of Nigeria as the poverty capital of the world, with 133.3 million of
its population suffering from multidimensional poverty between 2023 and 2024.
In December 2019, the World Bank warned that without drastic measures, Nigerians would constitute a quarter of the world’s poor people by 2029. The bank projected that by 2030, the number of Nigerians living in extreme poverty would increase by over 30 million. This foreboding scenario demands immediate action to avert an imminent catastrophe.
In 2019, the World Poverty Clock reported that almost six people in Nigeria fall into poverty every minute. Given this scenario, we understand the Tinubu administration’s urgency in attempting to ameliorate the grim conditions of the Nigerian people through reforms in critical sectors of the economy.
However, such reforms must be well-thought-out and implemented with economic safeguards to protect citizens.
The fuel subsidy removal and the floating of the naira by the Tinubu administration have led to massive increases in fuel prices and a devaluation of the naira by nearly 300%, with corresponding impacts on the economy. Citizens now struggle with high food prices and rising costs of other essential commodities.
The risk of becoming home to a quarter of the world’s destitute in less than a decade must compel policymakers to act. They must revive economic growth, increase employment, pursue Foreign Direct Investment, attract more capital inflow from Nigeria’s trading partners, and diversify into agriculture, mining, digital economy, science, technology, and innovation.
Poverty’s root causes lie in people’s lack of access to basic necessities such as food, healthcare, sanitation, education, and assets. The consequences of this deprivation are evident throughout Nigeria.
Among its hapless and mostly jobless youth, criminal activities are rising, including armed robbery, internet fraud (popularly referred to as “yahoo yahoo”), and widespread prostitution among young women.
Although the Nigerian economy is expanding marginally at about 3% growth rate, it is strained by a much higher population growth rate amid poor infrastructure.
With 2029 just four years away, all indicators suggest an unpromising trajectory for solving the nation’s problems.
Nigerian leadership must demonstrate expertise, resilience, and capacity to pull the nation from the backwaters and rescue its citizens from the humiliation of poverty.
China’s reform and opening-up policy, initiated in 1978 under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, offers an instructive example of resilient transformation. The Chinese government adopted a new economic development strategy focusing on growth through foreign investment and technology. This shift aimed to rebuild the economy through massive investment in agriculture and industrialisation to raise living standards.
The reforms first curbed the frivolous, ostentatious lifestyle of leaders. They focused on fighting corruption and reducing it to the barest minimum. The Chinese leaders maintained a clear vision of their country’s direction despite difficulties encountered in the process.
China also established specialised agricultural and sideline product processing parks that helped develop rural areas. The results were remarkable: China has become the world’s manufacturing hub and second-largest economy. It has lifted over 800 million citizens out of poverty in 40 years and offered Nigeria and other African countries a pathway to success by demonstrating how to align policies with unique national experiences.
Critically, China’s success was not dictated by external institutions like the World Bank but was rooted in policies tailored to its unique context.
In our view,Nigeria, too, must chart its own course, leveraging its vast resources and youthful population. But this requires visionary leadership—leaders who prioritise national interest over self-interest and who can galvanise the nation around a shared vision of prosperity.
Nigeria has the potential to emerge as a global economic powerhouse. The road ahead is arduous, but the nation’s best days can still lie ahead if its leaders summon the courage, ingenuity, and resolve to act decisively.
