Waiting For Another Census

By November 2026, Nigeria will have marked exactly twenty years since its last census was conducted. We recall that the previous exercise was held in November 2006 under the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo.

The report from the November 2006 census showed Nigeria’s population was 140,431,790, comprising 71,345,488 males and 69,086,302 females. Nearly twenty years after the previous survey, Numerous changes have taken place, including a deteriorating security situation that has resulted in many lives being lost.

Indeed, for reasons that many Nigerians still cannot rationalise, three successive administrations after former President Obasanjo failed to conduct a national census.

The country’s decision to avoid a census for two decades, despite the United Nations’ recommendation that nations conduct one at least every ten years to establish regular benchmark data, is difficult to explain.

Essentially, population and housing censuses help collect, process, and share detailed statistics on the population, its composition, characteristics, and spatial distribution. This enables the government to produce relevant, accurate, and timely data that supports informed decisions based on solid evidence, facilitating effective planning and decision-making.

Planning, whether at the individual, family or national level, is vital because it provides direction and minimises uncertainty. Even for this reason alone, Nigeria ought to have accorded topmost priority to the conduct of the census.

Regrettably, Nigeria has repeatedly given insufficient attention to the population and housing census, citing cost concerns, despite receiving funding and technical support from the United Nations Population Fund, development partners including the European Union and the United States, and other international organisations during each exercise. Consequently, it is not surprising that the country lacks an effective planning strategy.

Two reasons—the UN’s recommendation that nations conduct a census every ten years and its role in planning—are sufficient grounds for Nigeria not to forego the population and Housing census. But this is Nigeria.

Clearly, the absence of a census has made it difficult to state the nation’s population accurately. Unfortunately, the population figures being circulated as Nigeria’s are based solely on projections, with all their limitations.

We recall that in 2022, the National Population Commission (NPC) informed Nigerians that it was on course to conduct an accurate census in April 2023, shortly after the general elections. Four years later, Nigerians have come to realise that the NPC was actually off-track as the much-talked-about census exercise never took place.

Former NPC Chairman, Nasir Kwarra, had said, “Getting the 2023 Population and Housing Census right is a task that must be done, and the Commission is committed to ensuring that everything about the census is done accurately and professionally. We have the clear vision, commitment, and professional capacity to deliver on this historic mandate”.

Curiously, until he completed his tenure, the NPC under Kwarra did not carry out a census exercise. The best the nation experienced under his leadership was what the agency called a trial census in some selected communities across the country. We acknowledge that the failure to conduct a census was not due to any fault of Kwarra or the successive leaderships of the Commission.

The fault lies squarely with the successive administrations, which gave scant regard to the conduct of the census. The consequences of not conducting a census are varied, including the fact that the nation is paying hundreds of millions in salaries and allowances to NPC staff for doing nothing.

Why is Nigeria foot-dragging in conducting a census? Why have there been repeated delays? Why does the nation appear unwilling to tackle the seeming logistical and financial hurdles that have been the reason for the needless delay?

In 2022, while planning for the highly anticipated 2023 census, the nation invested in new technology, including digital mapping and biometric capture, as part of measures to ensure an accurate and transparent headcount, so why the delay?

It is instructive to observe that Nigeria requires a population and housing census to plan and tackle its complex development challenges effectively.

The Nigerian government should be concerned that no one can determine the exact number of Nigerians living in the country, as the current population estimate relies on projections from the 2006 census, which is now outdated.

We strongly suggest that the Bola Tinubu administration must change the narrative by ensuring that the country conducts a census. The fact remains that accurate population and housing data are necessary for sound planning. Nigeria needs to know the exact figure of its population to plan effectively for present and future generations. We need to have a headcount now.