Without Mass Production, Currency Stress Looms, Quartus Economics Warns

Nigeria’s economic recovery could relapse into another round of currency instability if citizens and businesses failed to embrace large-scale production and global competitiveness, a new report by Quartus Economics has warned.

In its latest publication released on Tuesday and titled “After a Decade of Growth Stall and Descent, Nigeria is Back on the Path of Stable Growth,” the Think Tank praised recent economic reforms for restoring stability but cautioned that the nation’s demographic pressure and weak production culture remained major threats.

“Now, with an economy whose population size already crossed the limits of resource-based prosperity, Nigerians must learn to produce, must embrace the culture of making things at scale, for sale to the world. Without this, slow growth and future rounds of currency stress are just by the corner,” the report stated.

The group observed that Nigeria had endured a decade-long period of economic stagnation during which output growth fell below population growth, leading to a 75 per cent decline in GDP per capita—from US$4,363 in 2014 to US$1,084 in 2024—and an 89 per cent loss in the value of the naira.

According to Quartus Economics, 2024 marked the beginning of a turnaround, driven by what it described as “twin surgeries” — decisive economic reforms that corrected deep structural weaknesses and restored macroeconomic balance.

The report noted that the removal of “debilitating subsidies” and ongoing fiscal adjustments had created room for renewed investor confidence, adding that sustaining these gains would require continued political will, innovation, and private sector participation.

“With about half of the population aged 18 or younger, Nigeria must feed, clothe, educate, and make productive its more than 120 million young people,” the Think Tank said.

While commending the government’s reform drive, Quartus Economics urged policymakers to ensure that the economy’s recovery “remains under competent watch and sincere care if it is to grace the skies and not merely flap its wings.”