The World Bank has warned that unplanned urban expansion could raise infrastructure costs, undermine productivity and constrain job creation in Nigeria, as it urged governments in Sub Saharan Africa to invest in city planning ahead of a projected surge in urban populations.
In its report, “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation”, released on Thursday, the World Bank projected that Lagos’ population would rise by more than 25 per cent from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050, although it would lose its position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) most populous city to Luanda, Angola.
Onitsha’s population is also projected to increase from 5.6 million in 2025 to 8.7 million by 2050, adding to pressure on Nigeria’s urban infrastructure, while Kano which is expected to see an increase from 4.8 million to about 6.3 million, will likely drop out of the list.
The bank warned that without adequate planning, population growth could produce sprawling settlements disconnected from jobs, markets and essential services, particularly on city outskirts where informal development often outpaces infrastructure provision.
“However, as things currently stand, SSA’s cities are underprepared for this rapid expansion, raising the risk that urban development on their peripheries, driven mainly by informal processes, will only serve to further replicate existing dysfunctional patterns of fragmented and irregular land use that undermine productivity and therefore more and better job creation,” the report stated.
The report projected that the land area occupied by cities across Sub-Saharan Africa would expand by 90 per cent between 2025 and 2050, with 71 per cent of urban population growth expected to occur beyond existing city boundaries.
“The reality is that most of the region’s future urban population growth will happen beyond the boundaries of these cities, and it is therefore beyond these boundaries that SSA’s urban future will be most determined,” it stated.
To address the challenge, the World Bank recommended planning road networks and protecting rights of way before settlements spread, alongside land-pooling and subdivision reforms and early investment in basic infrastructure.
These measures, it said, would help governments guide urban expansion, improve connectivity and create conditions for businesses to grow and generate jobs. Beyond urban planning, the report identified Kano as an example of how targeted infrastructure investment could strengthen trade and employment. The city occupies a strategic position along major north-south and east-west routes, linking agricultural producers to markets for cereals, legumes and other food crops.
The bank highlighted Dawanau International Grains Market in Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State as a major storage and trading hub serving the state and neighbouring countries. It said rehabilitation of internal access roads and drainage, installation of solar streetlights and improvements to truck movement and safety had strengthened the market’s trading and logistics operations. Extended trading hours had also supported market activities.
However, the bank in the report said further investment remained necessary to address infrastructure gaps., saying “infrastructure gaps remain, and further investments are needed to improve truck access, circulation, and safety.”
It identified opportunities to expand storage, packaging and basic agro-processing around the market, which could increase the value of agricultural products and create additional jobs.
The report stressed the need for Nigeria to combine better urban planning with targeted infrastructure investment to ensure that expanding cities support productivity, trade and employment rather than deepen existing infrastructure deficits.
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