Political science lecturers yesterday posited that the former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi’s decision to align with the opposition coalition African Democratic Congress (ADC) or heed the invitation of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would make or mar his ambition in the 2027 election.
While the political pundits agreed that Obi is at a crossroads over PDP’s invitation, some, however, noted that he would have to contend with forces in the PDP who have already declared to work with President Bola Tinubu.
Others cautioned that Obi might lose part of his base if he does not manage the intricacies of his being wooed back to PDP or his remaining in the coalition.
Obi’s political future with regard to the party’s platform has been a subject of discussion lately.
A founding father of the PDP and former information minister, Prof Jerry Gana, had disclosed that the PDP had reached out to Obi to return to the party.
Gana, in a television interview on Wednesday, said, “I’m a researcher, and I research opinions. In the northern states, Peter Obi under the PDP will defeat any candidate, because our people are very fair-minded.”
Similarly, a APC chieftain, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff (who served as PDP national chairman), also said in a recent Channels TV’s Politics Today programme that information at his disposal showed that the party had reached out to Obi.
The former Labour Party candidate was recently seen in a picture with PDP chieftain, former Niger State governor, Babangida Aliyu. He was in the company of a former PDP national chairman, Okwesilieze Nwodo. The former Anambra State governor had much earlier met with former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido and former Kano State governor, Ibrahim Shekarau.
However, the ADC spokesman, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, has insisted that Obi remains a member of the ADC, adding that he understands the risk of returning to the party which he left in 2022.
Obi had contested as vice presidential candidate to former vice president Atiku Abubakar but left the party in 2022, following the party’s failure to zone its presidential ticket to the South East.
Meanwhile, LEADERSHIP learnt that one of the strategies to lure Obi back to PDP is the zoning of the party’s ticket to South, a position that has been supported by the dominant group within the party.
The move which reverberated during recent top party gatherings, Founding Fathers Conference, and the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, followed the resignation of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and some of his loyalists.
Some PDP leaders who have clamoured for zoning the party’s presidential ticket to south are the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, Nyesom Wike and his group including, former Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom.
Interestingly, the Wike group has already disclosed its support for President Bola Tinubu’s second term bid in 2027.
But some party leaders, including former presidential candidate, Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, have kicked against plans to zone the PDP’s presidential ticket.
Olawepo-Hashim, a founding member of the PDP, said zoning such a position is not only undemocratic but anti-competence.
Meanwhile, Obi has yet to formally register with the ADC. The party’s national spokesman said he was granted permission, alongside former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai to finalise pending electoral issues in his party before joining officially.
Still, Obi’s running mate in 2023, Datti Baba-Ahmed, who distanced himself from the ADC coalition, said he was on a mission to reconcile warring camps in the Labour Party, a friction which has left the party in a dire straits.
Baba-Ahmed said he has the blessing of Obi to embark on the task, hinting at another option that Obi might explore ahead of 2027.
Obi Can Swing Votes Effortlessly, But …. – NPSA President
The president of Nigeria Political Scientists Association ( NPSA), Prof. Hassan Saliu said the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi is a politician who can swing votes effortlessly.
Saliu said:” Concerning the issue around Peter Obi that you have raised, there are extant three perspectives on the matter.
“He is a darling of politics in Nigeria who can swing votes effortlessly. The PDP believes in this position. There are others who think the dynamics have changed.
“He (Obi) does not stand a chance to receive a great chunk of votes that he received in christian communities across the country due to some other permutations. The narrative about his lack of firmness on party matters is not adding up the arithmetics.
“I also recognise the last perspective that believes in giving him the benefit of the doubt though the adherents of this school of thought are not necessarily obidients; they have an interest in him because of what the older generation of politicians have turned into in the country.
” If I am, however, to consult for Obi, I would advise caution. He will be sabotaged somewhere along the lines as it happened in 2019. He stands a chance of making an electoral impact but as for winning, I am not yet seeing that in the horizon for the simple reason that the PDP is a heavily damaged vehicle with which to embark on the 2027 political journey. The longstanding hostility in the party towards Atiku is instructive here.
“Given the tentativeness and lack of deep ideological considerations that characterise the political space in the country, the fluidity being experienced in the activities of the political parties is understandable,” Saliu added.
On his part, a political science lecturer in the Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Dr Christian Okeke said: “The fact that can be deduced from recent events is that Peter Obi has, once again, found himself entangled in a web with fellow desperate politicians and it is obvious that he is still weighing the options and watching as events unfold.
“He currently appears like a person still undecided on how to actualise his presidential ambition in 2027. Rattled and apparently displaced by the crisis that rocked the Labour Party, found within a new boat with politicians who also appear hell-bent on contesting in 2027 and left with an option of returning to PDP which offered him platform but later caused him immense discomfort and eventual success later.
“Obviously, Obi may be likened to any other politician and will likely play his cards again driven foremost by self interest. Returning to PDP may not be unlikely and totally out of place for a typical African politician.
“However, it opens up debates on twin issues of party ideology and real interest of politicians. It speaks volumes about the perennial failure of typical politicians to submit to superior party interest. More so, it tells so much about the grab syndrome or desperation to control political and economic powers in the name of fixing Nigeria,” he said.
Reacting to the development, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Bingham University, Karu, Michael John Agbo said: “Peter Obi’s alliance with the ADC and the attempts by the PDP to woo him back are significant developments in Nigerian politics and political party landscape. This development could make or mar Peter Obi’s chances and reputation.
“His romance with the coalition could become a strategic alliance against the ruling party. This alliance could strengthen his political base and broaden his appeal among voters or it could weaken his support base when his supporters begin to feel he is too desperate and that’s why he keeps moving from party to party bearing in mind that his running mate in the last election has withdrawn from him.
“PDP’s interest in bringing Peter Obi back might end his political ambition if he is not careful. A party he left because of its rot and the way they handle their internal party dynamics, he must not be seen to go back there. However, if he chooses to go back, and with Wike’s hold on the party, he should just say goodbye to his political career.
“Ultimately, the success of these moves will depend on how effectively Peter Obi can navigate through them all (coalition and PDP wooing) and still maintain his appeal to his supporters,” he said.
A lecturer in the Political Science Department, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Dr Terna Vincent Tavershima, said: “It is quite obvious that many people are agitated that the ADC is planning to give Atiku Abubakar their presidential ticket. The fact remains that if it is Atiku Abubakar that the coalition finally agrees that he should be the presidential candidate that every other political party (in the coalition) will vote for, I think it will not work out, because a Peter Obi will certainly not accept that kind of arrangement. He will look for a political party where to run and actualise his political ambition.
“Don’t forget that people are clamouring that the South must do eight years. So, Peter Obi will also not throw away that simple fact that it is the turn of the South to produce the next president. And any coalition that will not present a Peter Obi or a Southern presidential candidate for the 2027 election should just kiss it goodbye, Bola Tinubu will be re-elected.
“Now, to that extent, the PDP trying to woo Peter Obi back is quite funny, because as far as Wike is in control of the party structure at the national level, I don’t see a Peter Obi running for president on the platform of the PDP. Bringing him back to the PDP will just be there to come and cage him and ensure that he kills his presidential ambition for Bola Tinubu because that will just be the argument.
“Once the ADC gives Atiku Abubakar the chances of Peter Obi winning the presidential election will be slim. The chances of a Tinubu getting re-elected will be higher than Obi’s own, because two Southern candidates will be battling for the votes of the South, while one Northern candidate will be battling for the votes of the North and part of the votes in the South.
“The commonsensical thing to do politically is for Wike to now prevail on Obi, who if they woo back to the PDP, not to contest the presidency and allow Tinubu a second term. I think that will just be the political mathematics that all these people are trying to do. But wooing Obi to the PDP and once he gets there, I don’t think he’s going to run for president because a Wike who is enjoying the APC now will not allow a Peter Obi to run against a Tinubu,” he said.
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