5G Adoption Stalls At 3% As 4G Dominates Market — NCC

Nigeria’s mobile telecommunications landscape remains firmly rooted in fourth-generation (4G) technology, which supports the majority of connections nationwide, even as fifth-generation (5G) services gradually expand in select urban centres.

According to the latest industry statistics released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), legacy technologies, however, remain present in the ecosystem, with 2G still accounting for between 38 and 40 per cent of subscriptions, particularly among rural and low-income users, while 3G continues to decline at six to eight per cent.

According to the regulator’s 2025–2026 data, as of August 2025, NCC figures indicate that 4G alone accounted for 51.22 per cent of total connections, while 5G subscriptions stood at 3.17 per cent.

The data reaffirm 4G’s strategic position as the foundation of Nigeria’s digital economy. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs): MTN Nigeria, Airtel Nigeria, Globacom and T2 (formerly 9mobile) have prioritised extensive 4G rollouts to meet rising consumer and enterprise data demand.

Industry analysts attribute 4G’s sustained dominance to broader device compatibility, wider geographical coverage and relatively affordable data pricing compared to 5G-enabled services. In practical terms, 4G has overtaken older technologies as the preferred platform for streaming, fintech services, e-commerce, remote work and digital education.

Telecom experts note that while Nigeria officially entered the 5G era in September 2022, following MTN Nigeria’s commercial launch, Airtel Nigeria commenced deployment in 2023, the transition from 4G to 5G remains evolutionary rather than disruptive.

Despite ongoing expansion, 5G penetration remains limited due to structural and economic constraints. The NCC identifies high costs of 5G-enabled devices, rising capital expenditure on network equipment, foreign exchange volatility and limited base station density as key factors slowing adoption. While the operators have also faced increased investment requirements to upgrade transmission infrastructure and acquire spectrum licences, widening what industry observers describe as a 4G–5G spectrum utilisation gap.

However, momentum appears to be building. Airtel Nigeria recently disclosed that it has more than doubled the number of its active 5G sites in three months as part of its network modernisation programmes. This corroborates the need for further investment into the telco industry.

In 2025, the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), with chairman Gbenga Adebayo, indicated that the Nigerian telecommunications sector witnessed the highest level of new investments in network expansion and infrastructure upgrades since before the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to address rising capacity demands.

As of mid-2025, over $1 billion in new investments were projected for network expansion, including the construction of new sites, upgrades to existing infrastructure, and fibre migration. Consequently, further investment in the telcos would bridge the wide gap between the 4G and 5G spectrum.

In a recent media parley with tech editors and journalists, the chief executive officer of Airtel Nigeria, Dinesh Balsingh, noted that the firm’s accelerated 5G upgrade underway is designed to deepen connectivity across major cities.

“Our accelerated 5G rollout will connect the top 20 Nigerian cities to high-speed 5G networks, with a significant portion of our sites in these cities becoming 5G-enabled in the coming year,” Balsingh stated.

Similarly, MTN Nigeria has consistently emphasised that 5G is intended to complement its 4G infrastructure, particularly in enterprise applications, cloud services, Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystems and smart-city solutions.

Currently, Telcos revealed that 5G coverage remains concentrated in high-density commercial hubs such as Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Ibadan, where enterprise demand and high-income residential clusters justify investment.

Nevertheless, analysts argue that broader nationwide penetration will depend on policy stability, spectrum efficiency, infrastructure-sharing frameworks, and investment-friendly regulation.

The NCC has repeatedly stressed the importance of balanced spectrum management to ensure optimal coexistence of 4G and 5G networks. Industry stakeholders maintain that while 5G offers ultra-low latency and significantly higher speeds, 4G will continue to dominate Nigeria’s telecom market in the medium term due to affordability and nationwide footprint.

The current statistics reveal not just a penetration disparity but a broader digital transition curve. With over half of mobile connections riding on 4G and less than five per cent on 5G, Nigeria’s broadband future remains anchored in incremental upgrades rather than a rapid overhaul.

Experts contend that closing the spectrum gap will require sustained capital inflow, device affordability programmes, expanded fibre backhaul and supportive regulatory frameworks.

As Nigeria intensifies its digital transformation drive, the NCC maintains that both 4G and 5G must function as complementary layers within a unified broadband ecosystem that strengthens economic productivity, expands digital inclusion and positions the country competitively in the global technology landscape.