‘Election, Worsening Economic Situation To Fuel Cyber Threats’

The Cyber Security Experts Association of Nigeria(CSEAN) said, Nigeria should brace up for a range of cyber threats that will be perpetrated by threat actors using a variety of tactics, techniques, and procedure, due to the 2023 election and the Nigerian worsening economic situation.

The threats will include large-scale propagation and potential weaponisation, mis/disinformation, ransomware attacks and phishing attacks, among others.

In its report titled: ‘National Cyber Threat Forecast 2023,’  the association revealed that one of the main factors that are expected to influence the cyber threat landscape of 2023 is the general elections.

It disclosed that, in 2022, the world saw a significant increase in the complexity and impact of cyber threats and Nigeria was no exception.

“As experts and active stakeholders in the cybersecurity sector, we collected and analyzed data from various sources, including cybersecurity professionals in the country, incident reports, and 2021 and 2022 threat trends, to present our forecast of cyber threats for 2023,” it stated.

Speaking on the findings of the study, the lead author of the study, Oluwafemi Osho, stated that,  several factors will contribute to the predicted threats, including the upcoming 2023 general elections, the economic situation in the country, a lack of transparency in reporting security breaches, and a lack of coordination among organisations within the same sector.

“Other contributing factors include inadequate and inconsistent responses to cyber threats by government and regulatory bodies, outdated government computing resources, a lack of incident response plans in many organisations, a shortage and an increase in the emigration of cybersecurity professionals, and frequent strikes in higher education institutions,” Osho revealed.

He categorised the cyber threats as election-related threats and regular and emerging threats.

Speaking on the election -related threats, the lead author said, it is expected that there will be a significant amount of misinformation and disinformation circulated through social media plaorms in the run-up to, during, and after the 2023 general election.

“We are very likely to experience the weaponisation of manipulated information to influence people’s perceptions and behaviours in relation to the elections. This can seriously affect the integrity of the electoral process and undermine public trust in democratic institutions.

“Disinformation, specifically related to the elections, is likely to increase, with political parties potentially hiring foreign actors to create and disseminate false or misleading information. Nigeria had a taste of weaponized, coordinated propagation of disinformation during the 2019 general elections,” he stated

He advised that, it is crucial for individuals to be vigilant and critically evaluate the information they come across, particularly during election periods, adding that, it is also vital for social media platforms and government agencies to take steps to address the spread of misinformation and disinformation, such as through fact-checking efforts and public education campaigns.

The report also forecasted that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) cyberinfrastructure will be targeted in the lead-up, during, and after the elections, adding that attacks will include cyber-based threats, such as the defacement of the INEC website and hacking of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), as well as physical-based attacks, including arson and vandalism.

If the frequency of attacks and arson on INEC facilities from 2021 is anything to go by, Osho stated that, Nigeria is in for more of such as the country approach the general elections, while calling on INEC to be prepared for these types of attacks and to have measures in place to protect its cyberinfrastructure to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.