2027: States Where Governorship Race Could Be Fiercest As Governors Exit

With the 2027 general elections approaching, political activities are intensifying across several states as incumbent governors serving their constitutionally permitted two terms prepare to leave office.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released an updated list of governorship candidates contesting across the states, setting the stage for what could be fiercely contested succession battles in several parts of the country.

At least 10 states are expected to attract significant political attention as political parties, influential stakeholders and emerging political actors jostle to determine who succeeds the outgoing governors.

The states include Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Imo, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Oyo and Yobe.

The contests are expected to be shaped by several factors, including the influence of outgoing governors, the strength of political parties, internal party disagreements, zoning arrangements and demands for power rotation.

Among the governors expected to complete their eight-year tenures in May 2027 are Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Babagana Zulum of Borno, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of Kwara, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos, Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa, Dapo Abiodun of Ogun, Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Mai Mala Buni of Yobe.

While most of the affected states are controlled by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Oyo and Bauchi have witnessed significant political realignments following the movement of their incumbent governors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Against this backdrop, the following states are among those where the battle for the governorship seat is expected to generate considerable political interest ahead of the 2027 elections.

1. Lagos

The race to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is expected to be one of the major political contests ahead of the 2027 governorship election, particularly following the emergence of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat as the preferred successor within the ruling APC.

Hamzat’s emergence reportedly has the backing of Sanwo-Olu and influential stakeholders within the party, including the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), a key political body in the Lagos APC.

Sanwo-Olu, who assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his second term in May 2027.

The succession battle is particularly significant given Lagos State’s political history. Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the governorship seat has remained within the political structure associated with President Bola Tinubu, who governed the state between 1999 and 2007.

Tinubu was succeeded by Babatunde Fashola, who governed for two terms, before Akinwunmi Ambode took over in 2015. Sanwo-Olu subsequently emerged as governor in 2019.

However, the 2027 contest is not expected to be a straightforward affair for the APC-backed candidate, as opposition parties are also positioning themselves to challenge the ruling party’s dominance.

Among the opposition candidates are Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Funso Doherty of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and Doherty Olugbemiga of the PDP, alongside other contenders.

With 16 opposition candidates in the race, the election will test the APC’s ability to maintain its longstanding political dominance in Nigeria’s commercial capital.

2. Ogun

Ogun State is another major battleground where the succession contest is expected to attract considerable political attention as Governor Dapo Abiodun prepares to leave office.

Abiodun, who became governor in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his constitutionally permitted two terms in May 2027.

Already, several political figures have indicated interest in succeeding him, with much of the contest centred on the ruling APC.

Among the prominent contenders is Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, who is enjoying the backing of influential APC stakeholders.

Adeola, who represents Ogun West Senatorial District in the Senate, is expected to face 12 other opposition candidates.

The contest is also significant because of the longstanding agitation for Ogun West to produce the state’s next governor. The senatorial district has yet to produce a governor since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

Meanwhile, the political journey of the PDP governorship candidate, Oladipupo Adebutu, has taken an uncertain turn following the omission of his name from INEC’s updated list of governorship candidates.

The development could further shape the opposition’s chances and the broader political calculations ahead of the election.

3. Oyo

In Oyo State, the succession battle is expected to be influenced significantly by Governor Seyi Makinde’s political realignment and his preferred choice of successor.

Makinde, who won the governorship election in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023 on the platform of the PDP, will complete his second term in May 2027 and is constitutionally barred from seeking another term as governor.

However, his departure from the PDP and subsequent movement to the APM have altered the political dynamics in the state.

The incumbent governor is expected to throw his political weight behind Adekanmbi Abimbola, the APM governorship candidate, as the party seeks to retain control of the state.

Adekanmbi will face 16 other candidates, including the APC’s Alli Sharafadeen Abiodun, who is expected to enjoy the backing of the ruling party at the national level.

The contest is particularly noteworthy because Makinde himself will remain on the ballot in 2027, although not as a governorship candidate. He is expected to contest the presidential election on the platform of the APM against other presidential contenders, including President Bola Tinubu.

Consequently, the Oyo governorship election will not only determine Makinde’s successor but could also test the political strength of his new party and his ability to influence electoral outcomes beyond the state.

4. Nasarawa

The succession contest in Nasarawa State is also expected to attract significant attention, with 15 candidates positioning themselves to replace Governor Abdullahi Sule.

Sule, who assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his second term in May 2027.

The ruling APC-backed candidate, Senator Aliyu Ahmed Wadada, is among the prominent contenders in the race. He is expected to face candidates from the PDP, ADC, Social Democratic Party (SDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party and Action Alliance, among others.

One of the major issues shaping the succession battle is the question of zoning and power rotation among the state’s three senatorial districts.

Former governor Tanko Al-Makura has reportedly favoured an open contest, while incumbent Governor Sule has advocated the continuation of the existing zoning arrangement, arguing that it promotes fairness and equity.

Sule has also maintained that he has not endorsed any candidate and would support a process that respects the state’s existing political understanding.

With competing interests among political stakeholders across the three senatorial districts, the succession process is expected to test the unity of the ruling APC and its ability to manage internal disagreements.

5. Bauchi

Bauchi State is another major battleground where the impending departure of Governor Bala Mohammed could reshape the state’s political structure.

Like his Oyo counterpart, Mohammed’s movement from the PDP to the APM has introduced a new dimension to the succession contest.

Mohammed, who became governor in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his second term in May 2027.

The governor’s political realignment is expected to influence the chances of the APM governorship candidate, Adamu Yakubu, who is reportedly backed by the incumbent governor and the party’s leadership.

However, the contest is not expected to be without opposition, as Yakubu will face 17 other candidates, including Abubakar Mohammed Abdullahi of the APC.

The election will therefore test whether Mohammed can successfully transfer his political influence to the APM and retain control of the state through his preferred successor.

It will also provide an opportunity for the APC and other opposition parties to challenge the incumbent political structure.

6. Adamawa

Adamawa State is another major battleground where political realignments are expected to shape the contest for the governorship seat.

Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, who assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will leave office in May 2027 after completing his second term.

However, Fintiri’s movement from the PDP to the APC has significantly altered the political calculations ahead of the election.

The governor’s defection is expected to strengthen the APC’s position in the state, particularly with Aminu Ahmed Galadima emerging as the party’s governorship candidate.

Galadima is expected to enjoy the backing of Fintiri and the ruling APC as he faces 16 other candidates in the contest.

The development makes Adamawa one of the states to watch in 2027, especially as the election will test the ability of the incumbent governor to consolidate his influence within a new political platform and secure victory for his preferred successor.

7. Borno

In Borno State, the departure of Governor Babagana Zulum after eight years in office is expected to open a new chapter in the state’s political leadership.

Zulum, who became governor in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his second term in May 2027.

The APC has presented Gubio Alhaji Mustapha as its governorship candidate, positioning him to take over from the outgoing governor.

Mustapha is expected to face 12 other opposition candidates in the race.

The contest will be particularly significant for the ruling APC, which will be seeking to retain control of the state following Zulum’s departure.

With the incumbent governor unable to seek another term, the influence of party leaders and other political stakeholders is expected to play an important role in determining the outcome of the succession battle.

8. Yobe

Yobe State is another state where the departure of a second-term governor is expected to generate significant political competition, particularly over demands for power rotation.

Governor Mai Mala Buni, who assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, will complete his constitutionally permitted two terms in May 2027.

The APC-backed governorship candidate, Wali Baba Mallam, is expected to face 12 other candidates representing opposition parties.

However, beyond the strength of the political parties and their candidates, the question of which senatorial district should produce the next governor is likely to influence the contest.

Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, Yobe East has largely dominated the state’s governorship position, apart from the brief tenure of the late Mamman Bello Ali, who hailed from Yobe South.

This arrangement has fuelled calls from political stakeholders in other senatorial districts for power to shift, with advocates arguing that the governorship should reflect a fairer distribution of political opportunities.

The APC’s ability to manage these competing interests while maintaining its dominance in the state could therefore become a major factor in the 2027 election.

9. Gombe

In Gombe State, Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya will also complete his second term in 2027, bringing an end to his eight years in office.

Yahaya first emerged as governor in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023. His departure will open the governorship seat to a new generation of political aspirants seeking to take control of the state.

No fewer than 19 candidates are expected to contest for the position in the 2027 election.

One of the major developments surrounding the race involved former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Professor Isa Ali Pantami, whose name was initially omitted from INEC’s list of governorship candidates amid disputes surrounding the PDP governorship primary and questions over compliance with electoral requirements.

The commission’s earlier omission of some governorship and State Houses of Assembly candidates reportedly followed concerns about compliance with provisions of the Electoral Act 2026 requiring political parties to submit their membership registers.

However, Pantami’s name has since been restored to the list of candidates for the 2027 governorship election.

He is expected to face Gwamna Jamil Isyaku of the APC and other candidates representing opposition parties.

With the former minister’s political profile and the APC’s existing influence in the state, the contest is expected to be one of the closely watched succession battles in the North-East.

10. Kwara

The governorship contest in Kwara State is also expected to be fiercely contested as Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq approaches the end of his second term.

AbdulRazaq, who became governor in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023, is constitutionally ineligible to seek another term in 2027.

One of the major issues shaping the succession debate is the agitation for power to shift to Kwara North Senatorial District, which has yet to produce a governor since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

There have also been calls for greater religious representation in the state’s governorship position, with some Christian stakeholders advocating the emergence of a Christian governor.

Within the ruling APC, Yakubu Danladi Salihu has emerged as the party’s governorship candidate and is expected to face 12 other opposition candidates.

The opposition ADC, PDP and others expected to participate in the contest, with political realignments and the strength of their respective candidates will likely influence the outcome.