Things are hard and getting harder for the majority of Nigerians. Despite government’s assurances that things will improve with time, more Nigerians are falling below the poverty line.
Outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) president and former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Akinwumi Adesina, recently stated that Nigerians were poorer today than at Independence in 1960, noting that the present GDP per capita of $824 is lower than the $1,847 it was in 1960.
Nigeria has slipped from its former position as Africa’s largest economy. A recent report placed Nigeria fourth, behind Egypt, South Africa, and Algeria.
According to data released recently by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as highlighted by the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Nigeria, which was Africa’s largest economy, fell to fourth place.
The data showed that South Africa reclaimed the top spot with a projected GDP of $400.19 billion, followed by Egypt at $383.11 billion and Algeria at $264.91 billion. Nigeria, however, dropped to the fourth position with a GDP of $187.64 billion.
The latest World Bank report on Nigeria paints a grim and deeply disturbing picture.
With over 106 million Nigerians now living below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day, Nigeria now has the world’s second-largest population of poor citizens, surpassed only by India.
The report, delivered at the 2025 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlights the scale of the crisis. Poverty, both in income and in multidimensional terms—such as lack of access to education, healthcare, clean water, and power—is deepening. In spite of recent macroeconomic reforms by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the reality on ground suggests that the poor are not only being left behind but are being pushed further into hardship.
From soaring inflation and a weakened naira to high fuel prices and mass unemployment, the economic reforms so far, while technically sound in some respects, have failed to deliver inclusive growth. The removal of the petrol subsidy and unification of the exchange rate have produced short-term fiscal gains. Still, without a productive economy, safety nets, and job creation, they have aggravated the suffering of ordinary Nigerians.
Another report by the World Bank put poverty among Nigeria’s rural dwellers at 75 percent. In its latest April 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief, the World Bank survey put the urban poverty rate at 41.3 percent. It said 30.9 percent of Nigerians lived under the international extreme poverty rate of less than $2.15 a day in 2018/2019, but that since then, multiple economic shocks, mounting inflation, rampant insecurity, corruption, and poor governance practices have worsened the poverty level.
In 2022, the government’s own statistical agency, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reported that about 63 percent of Nigeria’s 200 million population (about 133 million citizens) were living in multidimensional poverty.
These reports do not speak well of the country’s governments at these times.
The Tinubu administration inherited a fragile economy, marred by years of mismanagement, policy distortions, insecurity, and a crippling over-reliance on oil. While his government has pledged to reset the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals, the experience of citizens suggests that these reforms are poorly articulated and implemented, without providing much of a safety net for the teeming vulnerable segment of the population. In fact, the reality that the government’s economic policies have pushed more Nigerians below the poverty line is underwhelming.
Temporary cash transfers, touted as social protection, have failed to reach enough people and lack transparency.
The World Bank rightly underscores—and many civil society voices and economic experts have echoed—that the root of Nigeria’s poverty crisis lies in poor choices made by the government and its officials. Years of unchecked corruption, public sector inefficiency, bloated government spending, and political impunity have crippled most institutions and eroded public trust. Not many Nigerians believe in the Tinubu administration’s reassurances that temporary pain due to the harsh economic policies will translate to better living conditions in the future. The self-serving priorities of the ruling elite do not align with the interests of the masses.
Even as citizens face unprecedented hardship, lawmakers choose to prioritise luxury over necessity, budgeting billions for new SUVs and office renovations, while hospitals, schools, and rural roads remain in disrepair. Institutions tasked with ensuring accountability have either become complicit or impotent. This disconnect from the realities of everyday Nigerians is one of the clearest indictments of leadership at all levels.
Moreover, insecurity across the country, especially in the North, has made it nearly impossible to farm, trade, or attract investment. Climate shocks, including devastating floods, further compound the problem, pushing more households into penury. The consequence is a restless, jobless, and increasingly desperate population. With 3.5 million Nigerians entering the labour market each year and too few opportunities to absorb them, the “Japa syndrome” (mass emigration) has become both a brain drain and a symptom of domestic failure.
However, if there is one message the World Bank makes clear, it is that bold, inclusive, and sustained reforms can still turn the tide, if the political will exists.
First, governance reform must be prioritised. Delivering economic development is impossible when institutions and resources are routinely mismanaged. Public finances must be depoliticised, made transparent, and tied to performance. Budgetary processes should prioritise people over prestige, and independent audit mechanisms must be empowered to hold public officers to account.
Second, insecurity must be addressed with urgency. Nigeria cannot lift its people out of poverty if entire regions remain under siege. The government must invest in intelligence-led security operations, improve military-civilian relations, and ensure displaced communities are safely reintegrated.
Third, job creation must become the centrepiece of economic planning. As suggested by the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), stimulus packages targeted at SMEs, agriculture, and vocational training for youth and women can help unlock the latent economic potential of millions. Programmes that support self-employment, microfinance, and digital literacy are vital in a country with such a youthful population.
Fourth, the agricultural sector must be revitalised. Subsidising inputs, expanding rural infrastructure, and offering long-term credit to smallholders can boost productivity, reduce food insecurity, and create livelihoods. Agriculture remains Nigeria’s best immediate tool for inclusive growth if properly harnessed.
Inflation remains the greatest enemy of the poor, and every effort must be made to moderate the cost of living. The government must focus on expanding social services like healthcare, education, clean water, and reliable electricity; they are the foundation of human capital development.
Fifth, reform must be decentralised. States and local governments must be empowered and held accountable to manage their resources productively. Too often, local leaders hide behind the federal government’s failures while failing to address the needs of their communities.
Finally, we urge the government to look for homegrown economic solutions that address the country’s peculiar challenges. No country ever became great by adopting the dictates of the Bretton Woods or any other institutions for that matter.
