As the June 2023 date for the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly draws closer, the dynamics of who gets what, particularly in the Green Chamber are becoming clearer, and if nothing changes my predictions from the last few weeks would eventually be confirmed.
A former member of the House and member-elect, Abdulmumini Jibrin, in what looked like a credence to my analysis on this page summarised his opinion, saying if elections for the position of the speaker were held, Chairman House Committee on Appropriations Muktar Aliyu Betara (APC, Borno State) would win overwhelmingly by 90 cent to 95 per cent.
The factors that informed Jibrins inclinations are part of the indices I have exposed and warned the APC about. Elections of presiding officers in the National Assembly are not absolutely within the ambit of any political party, it is what Herbert Spencer referred to as “survival of the fittest”.
The current speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila won over his challenger, Muhammed Bago (Niger State governor-elect) by a wide margin not just because the party supported his aspiration, it was also not because the party produced an overwhelming majority. Rather, the ‘big boys’ who could break the ranks of the APC at the time didn’t find a comfortable candidate as their preferred men lost elections, therefore they settled for the party’s choice.
This unfortunately won’t be the situation when the 10th Assembly is convened. First and foremost, members from the minority political parties number over 160 and counting and they have been organising themselves to form a common front. The ranks of these minority lawmakers have swelled, they would have a huge influence on where the pendulum swings, and without any fear of equivocation, I can predict that a good number among them have settled for Betara.
Going by my reading of the situation, I am convinced that Betara is the preferred candidate of members across political party divides, and this would come to fruition irrespective of whatever the APC decides as its zoning arrangement.
While I admit that some interests may consider my honest analysis as tacit support for the influential lawmaker, those who are open-minded about happenings in the House would agree that my views are realistic.
Let me, for the records declare that I have no special relationship with any of the contestants and I have not had a personal engagement with them either. However, like every other journalist, I have in the course of discharging my duties interacted with all of them and can speak to their chances of winning the contest based on their political stature. I can also speak to their ability to stabilise the House, I am convinced that Betara is a stabilising factor, go and confirm this.
Let me also declare that I have not been in contact or communication with Hon Jibrin, the man who knowingly or in unknowingly confirmed my analysis on a television show last week. His views on the show are closely related to mine just because it represents the truth which speaks for itself.
Now that Jibrin has taken the bold step to bell the cat, let me assume the liberty to reproduce my convictions in clearer terms. While the APC for political correctness, will not zone the position of the speaker to the North East, indices show that the only candidate from the zone, Betara is most certainly going to emerge. Except until the situation changes within the period left before the election, Betara will win. He has incomparable goodwill and has covered a very wide mileage. As I said a few weeks ago, it will take forever for most of the other candidates to catch up with his speed.
Betara’s major contender (irrespective of APC’s zoning arrangement) is the current deputy speaker, Idris Wase (APC, Plateau) who is also by any means not a lightweight. Wase’s chances would be greatly boosted if the party zones the position to the North-central geopolitical zone. Nevertheless, the zoning would only add to the numbers for Wase, it is not any guarantee for his victory.
These are the possibilities as current indices show. Meanwhile, in politics anything can happen, but until a new twist is introduced, the most popular candidate, Betara remains the most beautiful bride awaiting a very colorful wedding ceremony
