Forex Inflow Rises To $17bn As Economy Expands In Q4

Nigeria’s net foreign exchange inflow surged to $17.39 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by strong autonomous inflows from foreign investments, remittances, and export earnings, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The CBN’s Quarterly Economic Report  for the last quarter of 2024 showed a 20.62 per cent increase in total forex inflows, rising to $27.81 billion from $23.06 billion in the previous quarter. This growth was fueled by a remarkable 47.55 per cent surge in autonomous inflows, which climbed from $11.03 billion in Q3 2024 to $16.27 billion in Q4 2024.

However, inflows through the CBN slightly declined by 4.05 per cent to $11.54 billion, down from $12.03 billion in Q3 2024, pointing out a reduction in official forex receipts. The report also indicated an increase in foreign exchange outflows, which rose by 31.37 per cent to $10.42 billion in Q4 2024. Outflows through the CBN grew by 22.98 per cent to $8.99 billion, while autonomous sources saw a dramatic 129.59 per cent surge to $1.43 billion.

Despite the increase in outflows, net forex inflows still rose by 14.99 per cent to $17.39 billion, up from $15.13 billion in the preceding quarter. The CBN attributed this growth to a significant rise in autonomous inflows, which reached $14.84 billion, compared to $10.40 billion in Q3 2024.

Nigeria’s domestic economy recorded significant growth in Q4 2024, expanding by 3.84 per cent to reach N22.61 trillion. The CBN attributed this expansion to the improved performance of the non-oil sector, particularly the financial and insurance subsector.

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According to the report, all major economic activities experienced broad-based growth, except for the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning subsector, which contracted by 5.05 per cent due to increased tariffs, ongoing grid maintenance, and a shift toward alternative energy sources.

The oil sector saw a slower growth rate of 1.48 per cent year-on-year, compared to 3.96 per cent in the non-oil sector. This deceleration was largely attributed to a decline in the price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude, which fell to $75.66 per barrel from $82.23 per barrel in Q3 2024. However, an increase in crude oil production from 1.33 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 1.43 mbpd helped moderate the slowdown.

The non-oil sector continued its upward trajectory, expanding at a faster pace of 3.96 per cent compared to 3.37 per cent in Q3 2024.

This sector contributed 3.77 percentage points to overall GDP growth, making it the primary driver of Nigeria’s economic expansion.

Key growth drivers included financial and insurance services, information and communication, transportation and storage, crop production, and trade. The financial sector particularly benefited from increased fintech adoption, improved banking penetration, and higher investment inflows into capital markets. Similarly, the ICT sector saw gains due to the continued expansion of digital services and increased internet penetration.

The transportation and storage sector played a crucial role in economic expansion, supported by increased logistics activities, trade facilitation, and government infrastructure projects. Crop production also remained strong, aided by favorable weather conditions and sustained agricultural interventions by the government.