Foundation Claims Over $200bn Undeclared Losses In Nigeria’s War Against Terrorism

The Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) has asserted that Nigeria has suffered over $200 billion in undeclared economic, social and developmental losses since the outbreak of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009.

It, therefore, urged  the federal government to immediately undertake a comprehensive national audit of the hidden costs of terrorism.

In a statement by its executive director, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, PeacePro said Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts have been measured almost exclusively by the number of terrorists neutralised, weapons recovered and territories reclaimed, while the country’s most devastating losses had remained undocumented and largely ignored.

According to the group, the over $200 billion estimate is a conservative policy assessment based on over 15 years of cumulative losses arising from the destruction of public infrastructure, abandoned agricultural production, collapsed businesses, disrupted supply chains, population displacement, reduced investments, interrupted education, environmental degradation, humanitarian expenditure and lost economic opportunities.

Hamzat explained that its estimate was developed through an aggregation of available data from government institutions, international financial organisations, humanitarian agencies, academic studies and independent policy analysis.

He  noted that while international assessments have estimated the direct economic impact of the North-East conflict at well above US$100 billion, Nigeria has never undertaken a comprehensive valuation of indirect national losses, including foregone investments, productivity losses, human capital erosion and long term opportunity costs.

“When these hidden costs are incorporated over more than fifteen years of conflict, PeacePro said, the cumulative national loss exceeds US$200 billion,” he said.

“Nigeria has counted the number of terrorists killed, but it has never counted the true value of what terrorism has taken away from the nation. Every abandoned farm is an economic casualty. Every destroyed school is a development casualty. Every displaced family is a productivity casualty. Every investor discouraged by insecurity represents a lost opportunity for national growth. These are the hidden casualties of terrorism,” he added.

Hazmat warned that the country’s greatest losses are no longer limited to the battlefield but are increasingly reflected in weakened economic growth, declining investor confidence, food insecurity, rising youth unemployment, psychological trauma, environmental degradation and the erosion of national cohesion.

He  maintained that without a deliberate national recovery strategy, Nigeria risks achieving military victories while suffering long term economic and social decline.

To reverse the trend, he called for the immediate establishment of a National Recovery and Reconstruction Commission to coordinate the rebuilding of conflict affected communities and implement a National Post Terrorism Transformation Framework.