Middle East Conflict Drives Fertiliser Price Surge Across Nigeria, Africa

The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is pushing up fertiliser prices across Nigeria and several African countries, raising concerns over rising food inflation and worsening food insecurity on the continent.

According to the April 2026 Food Security Monitor released by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), the intensifying tensions in the Middle East are disrupting global energy, transport and commodity markets, leading to higher costs for fertiliser inputs and logistics across sub-Saharan Africa.

The report noted that global fertiliser markets are already under significant pressure, with urea prices rising by 49.6 per cent, while Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) increased by 14.9 per cent, Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) rose by 14.4 per cent, and potash climbed by 5.1 per cent.

AGRA attributed the surge to prolonged supply risks and rising energy costs linked to instability in the Gulf region, particularly around critical global shipping routes.

It stated: “Nigeria has seen more moderate but sustained fertiliser inflation, with NPK up 17 per cent year-on-year and urea up 12.6 per cent month-on-month and 23.5 per cent year-on-year.”

The organisation warned that rising costs of fertiliser, fuel and transportation could significantly increase production expenses for farmers, weaken food supply chains, and further drive up food prices across Africa.

It also noted that countries heavily dependent on fertiliser imports remain highly exposed to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic oil and shipping corridors affected by the ongoing tensions.

Across the continent, AGRA said the impact of the crisis is already visible in energy and transport markets. Mozambique recorded a 46 per cent increase in diesel prices between March and April, while petrol prices rose by 38 per cent in Rwanda and diesel increased by 19 per cent in Kenya. Malawi also experienced a 26 per cent rise in petrol and diesel prices within the same period.

“These combined shocks—higher fertiliser, fuel and logistics costs—are increasing the landed cost of food and essentials and are likely to be passed on to consumers,” the report stated.

The organisation warned that the mounting pressure could worsen inflationary trends across East, Southern and West Africa in the coming months.

Although some West African markets recorded temporary declines in maize and rice prices due to post-harvest supply improvements, AGRA cautioned that insecurity, high living costs and persistent supply disruptions continue to threaten food access in the region.

It projected that food insecurity conditions in Nigeria and other West African countries could worsen through September 2026 if there are no significant improvements in security and humanitarian access.

“Armed conflict, road blockades and attacks continue to disrupt trade flows, livestock movements and livelihoods, while high food prices are sharply eroding household purchasing power,” the report said.

It added that seasonal pressures, displacement and flooding risks are expected to further expand crisis and emergency conditions from June onward, compounded by rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to global supply disruptions.

AGRA concluded that the current developments highlight the vulnerability of African food systems to geopolitical shocks and global commodity market volatility.

“Global food commodity prices are edging higher, with the FAO Food Price Index up 1.6 per cent to 130.7 in April 2026, its third consecutive monthly increase, driven by higher vegetable oil, meat and cereal prices amid rising energy and transport costs linked to Middle East tensions,” it added.