Nigeria Risks $3bn Yearly Loss Over Failure To Meet EU Deforestation Rules

Nigeria could lose over $1 billion in direct agricultural export earnings and more than $3 billion in total economic value each year if it does not align with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

A new federal government white paper launched in Abuja on Wednesday has revealed.

Under the EUDR rules, commodities entering the EU must be traceable to their exact farm boundaries, legally produced and verifiably free of deforestation.

However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has launched a national strategy and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) to guide the country’s compliance framework.

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, at the signing ceremony, said the scale of potential loss required coordinated national action to safeguard farmers, exports and the wider economy.

The minister said the country is entering a period where data, science and transparent production systems will determine access to global markets.

Kyari noted that compliance should not be viewed solely as a challenge but as an opportunity to modernise agricultural value chains, unlock premium export markets and raise farmer incomes.

He stressed that all tools and platforms developed under the strategy must remain accessible and affordable to smallholders, who form the backbone of Nigeria’s agricultural economy.

The minister added that the national strategy was crafted through extensive collaboration involving government institutions, commodity associations, private stakeholders and development partners.

The framework, he said, was designed to secure Nigeria’s place in global supply chains at a time when environmental standards are becoming central to trade competitiveness.

Under the new partnership, NASRDA will supply satellite imagery, real-time monitoring and technical support, while the ministry will coordinate farmer engagement and policy integration.

A joint steering committee and a national responsibility matrix will guide the rollout, ensuring that farmer registrations, polygon mapping and transaction records feed into a single national database as the only structure the EU will recognise for assessing Nigeria’s risk status.

“Today’s event is both strategic and symbolic. It is strategic because it equips Nigeria with the systems required to remain competitive in global markets and it is symbolic because it represents our collective resolve to protect our farmers, modernise our value chains and build an agricultural sector that stands strong on the global stage,” he said.

The minister recalls that President Bola Tinubu made it clear that agriculture was central to the national strategy for economic renewal, stability and inclusive growth.

“Our commodities must now be traceable to the exact farm boundary, legally produced and verifiably deforestation free.

“We cannot allow this level of exposure to place our farmers or our national economy at a disadvantage and we will not allow global regulations to undermine Nigerian livelihoods or leave any farmer behind,” Kyari said.